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- US employment seems to be one of the brightest points of the economic downturn.
- But an often neglected measure paints a less rosy picture of the labor market.
- The labor force participation rate has hovered around 62% over the last decade, which was low by historical standards and compared to other countries.
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At first glance, employment in the United States has remained one of the brightest points in an economy that should slow down.
The country has created jobs for a record 105 consecutive months. For most of the past year, the closely monitored unemployment rate has remained near its lowest level in almost five decades.
But an often neglected measure gives a less optimistic image of the labor market.
Representing the share of the working-age population having a job, the participation rate in the labor force highlights the degree of abandonment of Americans by looking for a job.
And this figure has barely changed by about 62% in the last decade, which is low by historical standards and compared to other countries. Although the aging of the labor force is partly responsible for this situation, a closer look reveals worrying trends for economists.
"What's more worrisome is the labor force participation of workers over the course of their main years of work," said Martha Gimbel, director of research, Indeed, a research website for women and men in the United States. ;employment.
The number of Americans aged 25 to 54 in the labor market has fallen from the peaks of recent decades. Among women, economists have found that child care policies in a country have a strong influence on labor force participation.
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The United States lags behind countries that offer policies such as paid family leave, according to Gimbel. The labor force participation rate for working-age women is 83% in Canada, where there is parental leave of up to 18 months and subsidized child care.
"The United States is a particular case in our refusal to provide access to paid family leave, which we know is holding back women's participation in the labor market," Gimbel said. "It is unlikely that American women will succeed without more support for the burden of care imposed on them by society."
Men face problems directly and indirectly related to childcare policy. Although they have a higher activity rate in the labor force, it has fallen below the record level of recent years.
Gaps in the level of education and a slow recovery in construction activity are also behind this weakening, said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody's Analytics. Structural problems such as the opioid crisis and incarceration have not helped, he said, making it unlikely that the scheme will change even as expansion continues.
"Men who leave the job market because changing gender norms allow them to explore other ways of contributing to the household is not a concern," Sweet said. . "The decline in economic opportunities making labor market participation unattractive to men is undoubtedly a concern."
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