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The 75-year-old President Buahri is considering to run for a second term next year
In our series of letters from African journalists, the editor of the Nigerian Daily Daily, Mannir Dan Ali, badesses the chances of reelection of President Muhammadu Buhari after the loss of key allies.
The dramatic defections of nearly 50 lawmakers last week from Nigeria's ruling party sought a moment as if history was repeating itself.
There were hints for weeks that defections were on the cards.
Key members of President Muhammadu Buhari's All Progressive Congress (APC), who were aggrieved by his leadership, wanted to inflict a powerful blow on the body until the next election.
A similar strategy weakened the People's Democratic Party (PDP) when it was in power, leading to its defeat in the 2015 elections.
However, when the defections finally occurred, they were not as seismically as in 2015 five influential state governors and at least two policy makers opened the floodgates for others to follow.
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Senate Speaker Bukola Saraki (L) and the Speaker of the Yakubu Dogara (R) lower house would be at the l '. origin of President Buhari's troubles
Up to now, about four dozen members of the National Assembly have changed their camp from the APC mainly to the opposition PDP.
The governor of Benue State also defected and at least two other governors.
Considered with suspicion
Interestingly, the leaders of both houses, Yakubu Dogara and Bukola Saraki, respectively, did not announce their defection – although they were seen as the instigators of the crisis current.
But they are both now viewed with suspicion – and there are calls for them to be expelled from the party so that their positions can be taken by the APC loyalists.
Mannir Dan Ali:
"Mr. Buhari was unable to put an end to the rival ambitions of the party – some governors and their political supporters trying to take over for the presidency in 2024" [19659023] It is no secret that Mr. Saraki does not get close up with the president. It has just been cleared by the Supreme Court of Corruption following an investigation initiated by Mr. Buhari.
Their tense relationship has meant that many important laws and appointments are being blocked by parliament.
Such delays will only worsen as both houses of Parliament abruptly halted for eight weeks immediately after the defections. 19659007] Among the cases currently in limbo is one for the approval of money for the electoral commission to conduct the elections of February 2019.
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M. Buhari came to power despite great euphoria, but many feel that he did not meet their expectations
And with the party primaries expected to arrive in the next few weeks, we expect more turbulence
The defectors have one thing in mind: they want to secure their own political future.
They understood that they were unlikely to secure the appointment for the positions they were looking for. Their main claim was an automatic ticket for the next election, but the APC refused
. More on the Buhari presidency:
Many of them had joined the PDC 's APC and felt that their loyalty had not been rewarded.
But Buhari was unable to put an end to the party's rival ambitions – some governors and their political supporters trying to take over the presidency in 2024.
Since the return of the civil power in 1999, powerful state governors tend to have the most influence in their parties.
MPs simply do not have as much weight – and as a result suffer from a high attrition rate, and 30% of them getting a second term.
No credible challenger
Despite these defections, the ruling party has said that it does not worry because it still has a majority in both houses.
It was exactly the position taken by the PDP before staring defeat head-to-head in 2015.
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The PDP was defeated in 2015 after 16 years of power
For President Buhari and the APC to avoid a similar fate, they will have to do more to rebadure their members and other Nigerians of the possibility of entrusting them with power after 2019.
The uneven performance of President mean that many Nigerians are not as enthusiastic about the upcoming elections as in 2015.
So they were full of hope. A Buhari presidency promised a firm stance on corruption, insecurity and revitalizing the economy.
President Buhari had limited success in the first two and the economy worsened with unemployment at a record level.
The president and his party could just win next February, it is that the opposition has not yet found a credible alternative.
There are also Nigerians who are not likely to decide to vote for the PDP, blamed for creating a lot With the party primaries scheduled between August and October, it becomes very late for the opposition of find someone with the credibility and recognition of the national name to appeal to most people. Nigerians and big potential brokers who play a big role in the elections
More about Mannir Dan Ali:
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