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Liverpool appear to have regained their form in recent times, but as the Reds continue to chase Manchester City, fans are understandably concerned about rumors surrounding Alisson Becker’s availability.
The Brazilian keeper helped Jurgen Klopp’s defense given the absence of Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Joel Matip, but social media speculation is circulating whether he could miss tonight’s clash against Brighton and Hove Albion.
Fans clearly recognize Alisson’s importance, with his goalie ability that can be captured using the underlying numbers below the box.
Expected Goals (xGs) provide insight into the likelihood of an effort being scored taking into account aspects such as the location of the shot and the part of the body used to take the shot.
And xG tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals based on their attempts.
Post-shot xG focuses on shots that hit the target and takes into account the quality and trajectory of the shot, which is why it can be applied to goalkeepers and shot stops depending on whether a player saves above or below the average rate.
By the metric, Alisson should have conceded around 18.3 Premier League goals this season, but he’s actually only 15.
That means South America has outperformed by 3.3 goals; the average keeper would have scored 18 goals based on the same shots, but Alisson conceded just 15.
Outperformance has been a constant theme throughout his career, as based on the last four league campaigns for Liverpool and AS Roma, xG after the shot suggests the average goalkeeper would have conceded 19.6 goals from more than Alisson.
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As a prospect, over the same four-year span, David De Gea outperformed his numbers by 11.1 goals while Jordan Pickford underperformed by 3.6 goals.
Essentially, that means Alisson has proven to be an above average keeper, while Pickford has saved at a below average level.
Alisson’s best season – interestingly – came the year before his move to Anfield, after outperforming in Serie A by a remarkable 10.9 goals in 2017/18.
Given the interest in analyzing the data at Anfield, it’s highly likely that Liverpool’s recruiting service knew how Alisson’s numbers compared to the typical man between the sticks, hence an offer has finally been made.
Without Alisson, Liverpool lose their ability to prevent goals from being conceded at an above-average level.
Caoimhin Kelleher is said to be the man to replace the Brazil international in the starting XI, but due to the few minutes he played at first-team level, it’s unclear whether the youngster is an over or under goalscorer. the average at the moment.
The 22-year-old has put in impressive performances every time he’s been called upon, but Alisson’s elite level simply cannot be matched and Klopp is hoping to field his first primary number on Wednesday night.
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