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Brexit should be next week. This Thursday, the heads of state of the remaining 27 member countries meet in Brussels to consider a call from Theresa May, outgoing UK Prime Minister, for an extension of the time of closing. It's getting late.
Theresa May says she can shape the pompous gas bags of her Conservative government before June 30, after failing to do the same before the departure on March 29.
Whatever May's chances of converting the Conservatives, what options are available to the 27 and what are the advantages and disadvantages of each?
European leaders face a difficult choice, according to The world.
They have two days to decide on Ms. May's request for an extension, a decision that must be made unanimously. It will not be easy, given the complexity of the subject and the different implications for the different member countries.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel wishes to show fraternal solidarity and calls for a conciliatory response. It could also be attentive to the decline in sales of German luxury cars.
French President Emmanuel Macron takes a tougher stance. This is inevitable for a convinced European, but it must also solve serious internal problems of yellow color.
The Irish Prime Minister will legitimately ask himself if the hitherto unsolvable problem of the land border between the remaining Republic and the north of Ireland that escapes can be solved by three more months of procrastination.
Delay or not delay, that is the question
The world suggests that it may take longer than today and tomorrow to find an agreed response, stating that a decision may not be made until next week. The 27 leaders were warned to keep their agendas free for a possible exceptional summit for the same thing next week.
To the left Release warns that the time it will take for the European Council today and tomorrow will probably be cold and stormy. We expect blizzards rather than breakthroughs.
First, Thérèse will make her presentation. She can expect a cold politeness. Then we will show him the door and the real Europeans will settle down to decide his fate.
Do not forget that May has already met several times the other leaders, always promised to put order in the chaos, to find that his government colleagues in London have once again moved the goal posts.
At the moment, no one knows exactly where the goal posts are.
Possible and plausible scenarios
So, what are the options before the 27th?
If they ignore May's letter or otherwise refuse his request for an extension, then that day at midnight in London, the UK will leave the European Union without an agreement.
It is the political equivalent of a black hole.
This is not something that the 27 will want because it opens up a huge Pandora's box in such crucial areas as air transport, import / export and fishing, and would likely cause chaos in the ports of the Handle.
It's a leap into the unknown and politicians are not good at this kind of thing.
But the European patience is exhausting. A diplomat quoted by the right-wing Le Figaro newspaper said that Brussels was completely crazy about all the business and that she now feels hijacked by the London fuddy-duddies.
Time and patience are exhausted
"Exasperation" and "burnout" are two of the recurring words in all reports on the current situation.
More and more EU diplomatic staff members believe that an exit without agreement with all its potential consequences is the only way to put an end to this silly saga.
This will at least compel starters who are busy baduming their responsibilities in a situation that they can no longer block. They asked for it. the calendar was clear from the beginning; let them continue. Good bye and good luck.
But of course, punishing London will inevitably bounce back on 27, in commercial, economic and human terms.
Black holes and nests of hornets
A longer period, between nine and 21 months, is another possibility.
But it is a real nest of hornets, as it would force the British to participate in the next European Parliament, for which they have not held elections.
And that would imply a hope of change of heart, perhaps of government, of the Channel, or even of a second referendum.
If the United Kingdom were allowed to send a commissioner to Strasbourg, it would participate in continental budget decisions until 2028, not to mention the possibility that the British contingent could, by blackmail, bring the European political process to a standstill. .
Which brings us back to Theresa May's last request for a short extension.
The European Commission has already indicated that such an agreement "would involve serious judicial and political dangers".
But at least that would allow the 27s to prepare for the spring polls without the parallel spectacle of interchannel chaos and continental war.
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