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1) Anthony Davis will probably be traded. This does not mean that it has to be exchanged. Pelicans can let him sit for a year and a half if that's what he wants and no suitable offer is offered. And honestly, rather than accepting players with marginal long-term value (for a rebuilding team) that will help the team win short-term games, she should not want to win, sitting Anthony Davis when he Swapping against Jrue Holiday and all the others for a rough picks is a better option. *
Think about what a typical draft would cost to go from the 9th, 10th or 11th draft choices to the 4th choice, not to mention the 1st, 2nd or 3rd, and it's becoming clear that this is the best option, at least in the void (one that exists only because team leaders often lack creativity), these transactions should only take place between two teams.
2) That being said, neither Boston nor the Lakers can offer New Orleans pelicans a major badet for Anthony Davis. This would be the # 1 choice in the 2019 project (Zion Williamson) or a player like Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid. Most teams would not trade the No. 1 pick against Davis, although I'm sure there are at least some who would agree to such an agreement, at least in their playroom. of them will even have about 1% chance of winning the first choice.
3) The Lakers have only one exchangeable badet that the league should consider in the same stadium as the three best coins Boston has to offer, and most of the league will probably not see it that way.
I'm talking about Lonzo Ball, who, despite the fact that his shot is lost for two years, has managed to be pretty much an average league player. It's a pretty hard feat, and if Lonzo ever shoots, and despite his neglected free throw percentage, there's reason to think he'll end up doing it, he'll become a very good player. Maybe if everything goes well, Chauncey Billups is fine. The problem is that we are probably talking about making a bet on a player whose shot is more than likely that he will be back on track for his second contract.
That is, the league will not value it as much as it should. There are too many risks.
4) That being said, this is probably how the league values badets between Boston and LA. Although we should perhaps not forget that, for reasons of common sense, the fact that Davis said he would not give up signing with Boston should not make a deal less likely. If I were the pelicans, I would much rather swap Davis for a place that he will not sign again, which will allow him to get better draft picks that are much more likely to be good than if I had to trade Davis against a team. to which he was definitely going to re-up.
Level 1
Nobody.
Level 2
Boston 1: Jayson Tatum
Level 3
Boston 2: Marcus Smart under very favorable contract
Boston 3: Choice of Memphis 1st round with limited Boston protections
Level 4
Lakers 1: Lonzo Ball
Boston 4: Jaylen Brown (I would appreciate it less for a number of reasons, but it would probably have been the centerpiece of a Kawhi chord last summer)
Boston 5: Sacramento 2019 Probably the late lottery choice due to Boston
Lakers 2: Brandon Ingram
Level 5
Boston 6: Gordon Hayward
Rank 6
Lakers 3: Kyle Kuzma
Lakers 4: Josh Hart
Boston 7: choice of the first round of Boston in 2022, when high school students will be available **
Lakers 5: choice of the first round of the Lakers in 2022
Boston 8: Al Horford
Level 7
Boston 9: Robert Williams
Lakers 6: Lakers 2019 1st
Lakers 7-10: Lakers 2023, 2024, 2025 or 2026 1st ***
Boston 10-11: Celtics 2025 or 2026 1st
Level 8
Boston 12: 1st Boston 2019
Boston 13-14: Boston in 2020 or 2021
Boston 15-16: 1st 2023 or 2024 Boston
Lakers 11-12: Lakers 1st in 2020 or 2021
Level 9
Boston 17: Daniel Theis (I would value it higher but I doubt that the league does it)
Lakers 13: Moritz Wagner
5) Pelicans therefore have many reasons to wait, even before I score six, which is perhaps the most important point.
The first is that some teams could offer Zion Williamson or a similar player, even if it is very unlikely.
The second is that the Celtics not only have more to offer, but also significantly better parts to offer if we get there. The Celtics and Lakers are not close in terms of available badets, and if you can not know by looking at the teams, just look at the Celtics' record of wins / losses without Kyrie's record-breaking wins-defeats. Lakers without Lebron, and consider that a team has not only better badets, but also players who are already winning games.
Third, the Lakers offer goes nowhere and will only improve as the Lakers feel increased pressure on time.
6) That's right, the Lakers are actually the team under the gun, not the pelicans. And if New Orleans really looks at the cards in the hands of the Lakers and determines their finals, they will see it clearly. These cards are as follows:
Lebron James + wish to add two other legitimate players to the maximum at his side. Period. End of the story.
All these young players that the Lakers want you to believe that they love so much, they do not want to do anything more than to dump them. The reason is that their contracts take up too much space. Lonzo to 8 or 9 million next summer. Ingram at 7 years old. Kuzma, Hart, Wagner at 2 million.
This is added if it is estimated that the salary ceiling is estimated at $ 109 million. The Lakers owe between 37 and 38 million to Lebron James and they have five million unused money to stretch Luol Deng. Counting only Lebron and Deng, we have 66 million free spaces for the 2019 summer season, not including the minimum ceiling for empty list places, which subtracts another six.
So, 60 million euros to add two free agents max. The problem is this: the first year for a maximum free agent contract is expected to reach $ 32.7 million. The calculation is easy. Sixty-two to thirty-two decimal seven is less than thirty-two decimal seven. Thus, the Lakers will not have enough space available to sign up to two other free agents next summer or the following year. Which makes the following point obvious:
In order to place two other legitimate players max level next to Lebron, the Lakers NEED to trade against a person who currently earns less than about 27 or 28 million. Anthony Davis, who will earn almost exactly $ 27 million in the last year of his contract.
7) Essentially, to adopt their master plan, the Lakers NEED trade against Anthony Davis. And, as there are virtually no free players worthy of the name in 2020, except Davis and Draymond, they must do before the start of the free activity next summer.
That is, the Lakers are under much more time pressure than New Orleans. They can not just wait for the Pelicans, and that's not just because some teams can offer Zion or the top seven Boston offers are better than anything the Lakers can dream of offering, or even team like Philadelphia decides in the end to be involved. This is because signing Davis as a free-agency for a max will prevent the Lakers from adding two legitimate max free agents to place around Lebron.
8) What's more, not acquiring Davis until the beginning of 2019, freelancers will exclude the Lakers from independence in 2019, because hiring a player on a maximum will inevitably occupy the course limit they expect to save for Davis in 2020. Of course, they could trade this player after a year, but the Lakers will still have problems in addition to seem disloyal, because these types of trade never report a fair value on the dollar and s 'articulate around two superstars, even those like Lebron and Davis, is harder than building around three (though Kyrie really wants to team up with Lebron again).
9) Of course, the Lakers could follow this path. Hold on. Hope Davis does not fall in love with another team and hopes that Ball, Hart, Kuzma and Ingram (due to a contract extension in this period) progress considerably as intermediate players. But it is quite obvious that this is not the final phase of the Lakers. The Lakers have no desire to wait for Ball to shoot and nothing else to wait for Ingram to learn to play basketball or Kuzma to learn to play defense, since one or two of these events will never happen. even in many of the best possible scenarios.
10) Thus, it is really the Pelicans who hold the cards, even if the Celtics keep their best element outside the commercial talks, because the next two articles proposed by the Celtics are probably even more appreciated by the league than by all the others Lakers can offer.
Really, if the Lakers want an agreement and we know it, they have to offer the nuts now and hope the Pelicans agree. And the nut is 3 or 4 on Ball, Ingram, Kuzma, Hart (I would try to keep Hart if I was the Lakers), the 1st 2019, their 2022 1st, a pickswap in 2023, their 2024 1st, a pickswap in 2025 and their 2026 1st **. It is a rich commercial offer. This may not be an agreement for the Lakers. I really do not accept this if I'm in New Orleans, because the Celtics can easily beat the best Lakers contract if they want, as well as Philadelphia, as well as any team that would eventually propose Zion Williamson . And for New Orleans to convey the possibility of seeing one of these results materialize, the Lakers should let go.
11) The key to New Orleans, although many teams are probably embarrbaded, is that any player New Orleans acquires must be sent to a third party for the first round selection. No matter which player. Especially players like Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum who will help them win games now (I guess New Orleans is smart enough not to get into Hayward or Horford). Especially since these players could be worth several first after the series this year, especially if Smart continues to play well.
12) After all, pelicans in New Orleans are the only team to break even in a superstar deal. They exchanged Chris Paul and they finished with Anthony Davis. They did not do it because their return was good (Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Chris Kaman and choice number 10 in the next draft was light) but because their return was a combination of the two. to be so mediocre and so young that it was not. do not help them win games and they are in pole position to win the next lottery.
The pelicans should follow the example they gave in 2011. The difference is that they should not shorten their recovery as they did the following year. They should be committed in the long run. Get plenty of choices and potential good players that will not help a player to win (like Aminu at the time or a player like Robert Williams now) and be patient enough to choose early, as did the times Oklahoma City and Philadelphia. It's no coincidence that Oklahoma City has qualified for the final, or that Philadelphia, despite many mistakes in team building, has a non-indecent chance to get there this year.
13) No matter what Silver did to the lottery, he did not change the incentives to lose. It's still the best long-term strategy for almost every team that is currently without a superstar. It does not matter if the chances are 10%, 15% or 25%. As long as your selection in the draft is, one way or another, definitely tied to your record, the teams must try to lose. The teams most committed to doing so have of course been the most successful. And this should continue to be the case in the future.
14) I would not expect New Orleans to choose this path or exchange the young players it acquires, even if it is a mistake not to do so. And as such, it's hard to predict if we should expect Davis to trade before the deadline. If I thought that Pelicans had a long-term vision, I would bet strongly against it, because I would bet strongly against the Lakers who would do anything but condescend to the Pelicans in the trade negotiations.
The Lakers need Anthony Davis. They need him now. But after the commercial dealings between George and Kawhi, would you bet on the boat's offer by the Lakers?
* We talked a lot about why Anthony Davis' teams did not win. Some have rightly pointed out that no center has the effect, according to Lebron or Curry, of making their teammates better in attack, while, wrongly, players like Anthony Davis could potentially facilitate the defense. the work of their teammates. The real reason is that the center is by far the easiest position to exploit, once you have wings or guards, simply by placing the right players in the right context.
The Warriors have been doing this for five or six years, taking players who would otherwise be at best average, and placing them in a context that allows them to be in total +2 or +3, as long as their minutes are gerrymander in the The right way. Other teams have also been successful with this tactic. And as long as the NBA has a salary cap and teams with guards / forwards like Curry / Durant or Lillard / McCollum or Lebron / whatever it is, it's extremely difficult to build around most centers because Anthony Davis / Joel Embiid would never have had the same effect on a guard that Curry / Durant can have on ZaZa Pachulia or JaVale McGee (which is why Nikola Jokic separates into the offensive position).
The replacement level of one center is already higher than that of the other posts, but the level of contextual replacement of the right central peloton of the most talented teams is a little higher than that one. Higher jumps and limits. And if a good-to-big team can derive such value from its position on such low pay, the type of player who will actually demand a contract at the maximum value will be very, very rare. Of course, Anthony Davis can be this guy, especially when he is badociated with a player like Lebron, Curry or Kyrie, because these units can have the same type of net "improving the spirit of the teammates" during the game guard / wing / attacker (open 3 pointers galore) as the Curry or Lillard types can play center.
** It can be said that the Celtics 'choices are underestimated compared to the Lakers' choices, since Davis said he would not sign again with the Celtics and that Boston would have to empty a good part of their team to succeed such an exchange. Even more than that, Davis not signing again with the Celtics would likely mean that Kyrie has already left for a free agency. In which scenario, the Boston team is then based around Gordon Hayward and Anthony Davis for a season, then Gordon Hayward, then probably nobody. Which means that project choices from 2021 or 2022 could be quite juicy. That is, if New Orleans believes Davis as he promised, they certainly should not talk to the Lakers for the moment.
However, if Boston makes the winning bid for Davis, it will probably happen before the start of the activity, that is, I should think that Kyrie is the first to sign, and then to Davis. Plus, if I were to create a scenario in which the team is not gutted to get Davis, she always ends up joining him as she has several better players / trumps than the best of almost anything The world, the one where Davis says he's won Do not sign up again and Kyrie hints that he's about to leave, that's a very good way to start getting there. Maybe Kyrie really plays chess while everyone plays the ladies.
*** I am reasonably certain (unless I am wrong) that the Lakers can not even propose the 2026 pick before the summer, after the 2019 draft) and it is probably the most valuable hypothetical Lakers at the forefront of a team. this has probably Lebron until his retirement, Anthony Davis at least until 24-25 and another guy of maximum level until 23-24. In an exchange scenario, it will probably not be a high-level first-level choice that the Lakers negotiate, just as they have no high-level talent to offer, which means that the Lakers can only make an immediate exchange. from Anthony Davis, the call is made by the brutal force of the whole.
And as the Pelicans have until the 2020 deadline to negotiate, there is no reason for them to accept anything less Lakers, if the time is really at the rendezvous for the Lakers. And indeed, the EVA on this package, without taking into account the loss potential of the Pelicans, will still not be as high as Anthony Davis, since virtually no amount of stars, even third or fourth, can not be combined, given the NBA's cap rules, would be a senior player like Lebron or Curry, or maybe Anthony Davis. And the third or fourth level stars are not what is offered.
Pelicans should have the longest view here, unless the Lakers really throw all their trumps at them. It's hard to imagine another offer that the Lakers could beat, even a mediocre Celtics bid, given that the Celtics have by far the best badets. And it does not even envision the possibility of an agreement for Zion or if a team like Philadelphia decides, as rumors and impatience suggest, the current construction of its alignment is irrevocably broken. I am pretty sure that no player as good today as Jayson Tatum has ever been traded on a rookie contract. Imagine that you are pbading from a Hinkie-type patience to an annual Colangelo-style bastard, for, if supporters succeed, to be the team that could potentially trade Simmons against his.
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