New study describes way to better estimate COVID-19 occurrence and trends

A new study by the US Geological Survey describes a way to better estimate the occurrence and trends of COVID-19 in populations.

Currently, COVID-19 testing is primarily limited to self-selected people, many of whom are symptomatic or have been in contact with a symptomatic person. While these tests are useful for individual medical treatment and contact tracing, they do not provide health officials with a complete picture of the disease in the general population.

Coordinated COVID-19 sampling is essential to inform health officials as they continue their efforts to control the pandemic, allowing for better predictions of disease dynamics and decisions that help limit transmission. The proposed sampling methods are also expected to help authorities determine the effectiveness of vaccines, social distancing, masks and other mitigation efforts. “

James Nichols, USGS Scientist Emeritus and Lead Study Author

By bringing its unique expertise in the design of data collection and monitoring systems, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling to human epidemiology, the USGS provides a means to fill the current information gap in data from test. This can benefit national and local governments and health officials as they develop interventions in response to new variants of the disease, plan increased vaccination efforts, and prepare for future epidemics.

With some countries experiencing an increase in the number of cases, Nichols points out, “the proposed testing strategies can be applied in the United States and internationally for COVID-19 and other diseases.”

One proposal of the study is to select a random sample from a population and investigate those individuals for symptoms, such as elevated temperature, in order to collect more representative data on asymptomatic cases. This would help researchers estimate the proportion of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals in the population.

Asymptomatic individuals, or a random subset of those individuals, could be tested for COVID-19 to help estimate the likelihood of infection for asymptomatic individuals in the population.

“The strategies outlined in this new research would help strengthen current testing approaches and could be achieved with relatively little additional testing and non-invasive investigations,” said Michael Runge, USGS scientist and co-author of the ‘study. “Strategic testing, based on specific objectives, can provide valuable information for decisions about both individual health care and the protection of communities.”

“It is extremely important to be clear about the purpose of a monitoring program,” said co-author Katriona Shea, professor of biology and former professor of biological sciences at Penn State. “Without knowing exactly what you want to achieve, how can you achieve it? An individual outcome surveillance program would be designed differently from a program to understand public health goals at the population level. “

USGS partners in this study include Penn State, Lancaster University, US Department of Agriculture, University of Oxford, University of Stellenbosch, University of Warwick, and the National Institutes of Health.