Nigerian elections in 2019: who benefits from the postponement?

Nigeria is due to hold a deferred presidential election on Saturday after the initial vote has been postponed to a spectacular day-to-day press conference five hours before the polls open.

The last-minute cancellation surprised the country and upset thousands of Nigerians who had come a long way to vote. It also cost the economy 1.5 billion dollars, according to the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The National Independent Electoral Commission (Inec) gave several reasons for this delay, including attempts at sabotage and logistical problems such as bad weather and problems with the delivery of ballot papers.

Election in figures

• 84 million registered voters
• 51% of the electorate under 35 years
• 73 candidates for the presidential election
• 120,000 polling stations

The ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) and its main opponent, the Democratic People's Party (PDP), both condemned the postponement and accused each other of trying to manipulate the vote.

So, does the delay favor someone?

In a statement issued on the day of the postponement, the APC claimed that the PDP wanted to put an end to the impetus of its candidate, President Muhammadu Buhari. The PDP, whose presidential candidate is Atiku Abubakar, for his part claimed that Inec had delayed the election to create "the space needed to perfect his rigging plans".

According to Idayat Hbadan, a focus group based at the Abuja-based Center for Democracy and Development, the one-week extension is too short to have a significant influence on the outcome of the presidential vote.

It compares the latest report to that of 2015, when the PDP – in power at the time – postponed the six-week elections, accusing the Boko Haram insurgency in the north-east of the country. This postponement, she said, eventually favored the APC because it cast a negative veil on the PDP – as a party that would seek to obtain "power at all costs".

She thinks that this year's delay could slightly benefit the APC in that it would increase voters' apathy in most regions, except in those where voter turnout is historically high – "the north-west and north-east … the two fiefs of President Muhammadu Buhari ".

Other badysts believe that the postponement of the session could harm both parties equally, as their supporters who had gone home to vote last week will not be able to make another trip this year. weekend.

According to another view, the delays would be detrimental to Buhari's chances, as the lack of preparation of the electoral commission had a negative impact on him. The head of the commission, Mahmood Yakubu, was appointed by Mr. Buhari in 2015.

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Will the election definitely take place this Saturday?

Inec says it will not be late, but some observers have wondered whether the elections will be held on February 23rd. Festus Mogae, a former president of Botswana, told the BBC Newsday program that he doubted that all preparations were complete.

"There is still a lot of work to be done," said the head of the international election observation mission.

"I do not know if it can be managed or not, I'm not able to judge but it makes me fearful."

Fatoumata Tambajang, former Vice President of The Gambia, also expressed doubts that Inec could meet its new deadline.

"You have to be realistic given the enormity of the activities that are supposed to be supported," she said.

In addition to overcoming logistical hurdles, she said that the people's enthusiasm for the electoral process should be restored to where it stood until last week's cancellation.

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What does the electoral commission say?

For Inec, it is essential to respect the new date to preserve public confidence. Alhaji Yahaya Bello, resident electoral commissioner of the capital, Abuja, told the BBC that there would be a "pandemonium" if the election materials were not rolled out in time.

"People will just think that Inec has deliberately hidden them so we can recover some results," he said.

The business community also stressed the importance of avoiding further delays, as the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry warned that economic activity would not resume before the elections.

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What happens next?

The first task is to reconfigure some 180,000 card readers used to validate voter ID cards and verify their biometric details. The dates on the readers must be changed at the new election date.

In a statement, Inec said the process would take five to six days and should be completed by Thursday, February 21st.

Some sensitive election documents, including ballot papers, were returned to the Central Bank of Nigeria for safekeeping. These should be deployed across the country by Friday, February 22 at the latest.

The election staff, comprising about one million ad hoc staff, will also travel at that time. It is unclear what happened to staff and volunteers, including members of the country's youth corps, already deployed last Friday.

According to the law, every election campaign must end 24 hours before the opening of polling stations. After initially announcing that the ban imposed last week would remain in force, Inec resumed its decision Monday, allowing political parties to resume the campaign this week.

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