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As the most populous nation in Africa and leading oil producers preparing for the February 16 elections, observers would like to know whether Nigerians would retain President Buhari for his second and last term or return to the party that led the country for 16 years, until Buhari presided over .
The President is elected by a simple majority of the votes cast. In addition, at least a quarter of two-thirds of its 36 states. Otherwise, a second round is held, which will take place within seven days of the announcement of the election result, in accordance with the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
After organizing the most expensive elections in Africa during their last election in 2015, it was no wonder that the president of the National Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) asked for 189.2 billion naira (about $ 523 million) for the 2019 election, compared to n120. In August 2018, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, President, attributed the difference to a number of factors, including an increase in the number of political parties from 44 in 2015 to 91 in 2019, thus affecting the size and cost of ballot papers, increase in the number of voters from 69 million in 2015 to 84 million, high cost of logistics and exchange rate.
With 91 political parties registered in the 2019 elections, only 73 parties have nominated their candidates for the presidency. However, just weeks before the elections, the withdrawal of the candidacy of Oby Ezekwesili, candidate for the post of president of the allied party of Nigeria (ACPN), was invalidated by the country's electoral commission, on the grounds that Article 35 of the 2010 Election Law (as amended), the deadline for the withdrawal of applications from all categories has expired. "
Although 73 candidates are contesting the presidency, it will probably be a two-horse race, as evidenced in 2015 by the two main political parties, All Progressives Congress (APC), represented by the outgoing President Buhari and the main opposition party, the People's Democratic Party. (PDP), headed by former president Obasanjo's vice president, Atiku Abubakar. Buhari garnered 53.96% of the total votes cast against 44.96% of President Jonathan's votes in 2015, making it the first time a holder Re-elected in the country, President Buhari will try to consolidate his achievements to be re-elected for his second and last term, February 16.
He must however It should be noted that the 2019 elections would not be the first time Atiku challenged Buhari in an election. In the 2007 presidential elections, won by Umaru Yar'Adua, the ruling PDP candidate, the Nigerian Atiku Congress (ACN) was third behind the Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) in Buhari. In addition, after the formation of APC, which was a coalition of opposition parties comprising Atiku's ANC and ANPP Buhari, in 2013, the two politicians challenged the primary of the party for the post of flag-bearer in December 2014. This was won by Buhari, with Atiku being third distance. Buhari then won the 2015 legislative elections against holder President, Goodluck Jonathan. In the 2019 elections, Atiku changed sides over power APC, PDP, the main opposition party, to question Buhari.
A unique feature of this election is this, The two main candidates, President Buhari and President Atiku, are both Muslims north. This would help avoid identity politics in terms of supporting a candidate based on religion or region. For example, in the 2015 election, it was between a southern president, President Jonathan, and a northern Muslim Buhari. Although President Jonathan received low approval rates, he was still elected as the PDP presidential candidate. The problems of the PDP worsened when five state governors from northern Nigeria and former vice president Atiku felt that the presidential candidate of their party, according to tradition, should have come from the north and gone to the CPA, thus affecting their (PDP) electoral fortunes.
In May, President Buhari signed a bill to reduce the presidential age limit from 40 to 35 years, giving young people the chance to compete for the country's highest position. Despite this law, only 11 of the 73 presidential candidates are under 40 years old. This can be attributed to the cost of filing an application with major parties. For example, the cost of running for president was 45 million naira (about $ 124,000) in the ruling party. APC, and 12 million naira (about $ 33,000) for the main opposition party, the PDP. With high unemployment rates among youth and the country's minimum wage set at 30,000 N / month (about $ 84.00), these costs were well beyond the means of most young people.
QUESTIONS RELATED TO THE ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN
The campaign that preceded the 16 February elections has raised many questions. These include corruption, security, the state of the Nigerian economy, Buhari's health and the suspension of the president of the Supreme Court.
Corruption
One of Buhari's supporters in the 2015 election campaign promised Nigerians he said, "If we do not destroy corruption in our country, corruption will kill Nigerians," the administration is really talking about it.
A few months after taking office as president in May 2015, Buhari set up the Treasury Single Account, which aimed to regulate the level of accountability and transparency of the government's financial resources. Indeed, previous governments had exploited several accounts for the collection and disbursement of their revenues, making it difficult for the government to determine the money they had at any time, thus paving the way for corruption.
Despite the policy put in place in 2012, the previous government had no political will to enforce it. For example, in January 2015, President Jonathan ordered all federal departments, departments and agencies to close their existing accounts with commercial banks and transfer them to TSA, with February 28 as the deadline. This directive was ignored and none of the MDAs were sanctioned.
When Buhari came to power in May 2015 and Nigerians were also aware of his anti-corruption stance from his previous government in the 1980s, the policy was implemented. MDA to enforce it.
In addition, the current administration of Buhari has been prosecuted against several prominent figures, including politicians, judges, civil servants and retired army officers involved in corruption cases. For example, on January 25, 2019, he suspended the President of the Federal Supreme Court, Walter Onnonghen, accused by the Tribunal of the Code of Ethics, of not disclosing his property, saying that "no one should be, nor be perceived as such, above the law. " Among the high-ranking figures prosecuted are Joseph Nwobike, Nigeria's senior lawyer, and Jolly Nyame, former governor of Tabara State.
His anti-corruption campaign has seen the country recover billions of nairas in the form of stolen badets, belonging to corrupt citizens. According to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), in May 2018, about 500 billion naira (about $ 1.4 billion) had been recovered from 603 corruption cases prosecuted since Buhari took office in May 2015. Despite these achievements, the Buhari campaign perceived as targeting its political opponents, thus allowing its political allies to free themselves.
Atiku on the other hand He has been accused of several corrupt practices, including the use of his position in the Nigerian Customs Service to perpetrate acts of corruption and the use of one of his wives, Jennifer, to launder more than $ 40 million of suspicious funds between 2000 and 2008 in the United States, thus tainting corruption. his image. However, Atiku has consistently rejected these allegations.
Fighting corruption, Atiku has pledged to use advanced technology tools in the public and private sectors of the country, when he becomes president. He sees a way to "prevent any form of direct contact that could cause corruption." He said this by addressing a public meeting organized by Nigerian television in Abuja on January 30, 2019.
security
Another major problem in the campaign is security. Prior to the 2015 elections, Nigeria was prey to attacks by the militant group Boko Haram, including removal girls from school. These incessant attacks have even resulted in postponement of the 2015 election. In this context, President Buhari has promised to end the insurgency under its three major policies, once elected president.
In little years of his administration, he was able to obtain the release of hundreds of girls kidnapped in Chibok by the militant group since 2014. In addition, the Nigerian army as well as the Multi national The Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has been able to recover large areas of land occupied by the group in northern Nigeria.
However, these early successes were short-lived. On November 18, 2018, for example, the militant group attacked a military base in the village of Metele, in the state of Borno, near the border with Niger, and according to the Nigerian army, at least 23 soldiers were killed. In addition, Boko Haram was able to recover some of the land it had lost to the army at the beginning of the Buhari presidency. For example, in late December 2018, the Islamic State of West Africa, a dissident group of Boko Haram, took control of the city of Baga, located near the border with Chad, and seized the nearby military base of the MNJTF.
In addition, the violence in central Nigeria worsened the security problems facing the Buhari government. According to the International Crisis Group, clashes between farmers and ranchers in central Nigeria have claimed more lives than Boko Haram attacks in 2018.
While Buhari wants to be re-elected on Feb. 16, Nigerians wonder if the president can handle these security issues.
Taking advantage of the president's inability to manage the level of insecurity in the country, Atiku badures Nigerians that he has the solution. He argues that creating jobs would help solve insecurity in the country. During a recent election campaign in Minna, in the state of Niger, on January 9, 2019, he said: "They have not been able to control the insecurity because they have been unable to provide jobs and businesses to the people. " as we provide jobs and businesses for our young men and women, you will hear less crime and insecurity. "
Economy
As the third Buhari government policy on the tripod promised to Nigerians before it became president, the state of the Nigerian economy is a major concern for the government in power. This is where his administration had the most difficulty.
Being the largest oil producer in Africa and the country's economy being largely dependent on oil, the drop in prices between 2015 and 2016 affected the first years of its mandate. Before becoming president, oil prices were over $ 100 per barrel. It dropped to $ 63 when it opened in May 2015 and in February 2016 it dropped to $ 35, thus affecting the country's budget. For example, the 2016 budget had a deficit of 2,200 billion naira (about $ 6.1 billion), which represented about 2.14% of GDP. In this context, Buhari could not prevent the country from entering recession in 2016. However, the Nigerian economy began to recover, but at a slow pace.
In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the unemployment rate of Buhari increased from 13.9% in July 2016 to 18.8% in July 2017. In July 2018, it rose to 23.1% . His inability to solve the country's economic problems since his presidency left many Nigerians frustrated and disappointed by his administration.
Atiku on the other hand Many Nigerians consider that he is able to cope with the state of the Nigerian economy because of his background. As a private citizen, he has been able to create multi-billion dollar businesses covering sectors such as agriculture, logistics, education, food and beverage and the media, employing thousands of Nigerians. Atiku boasts of his experience and claims that he is the ideal candidate to put the Nigerian economy back on track by reducing unemployment, attracting investment and generating a GDP of $ 900 billion. here 2030. Atiku is committed to reducing taxes that would attract more foreign investors in the country, which would create jobs to address the problem of unemployment.
The health of Buhari
President Buhari's health is another issue that has dominated the campaign, as he has spent several months seeking treatment abroad since he became president in 2015. One of the most challenging them, in 2017, he was gone for 104 days. It was the second time that he was spending such a vacation that year.
His regular absence from the public sphere while seeking treatment for a disease unknown to Nigerian public, leads to false reports of his death. It was even falsely claimed that he was dead and had been cloned. This led Buhari to send a tweet in Poland on December 2, 2018, returning the clone rumors as "ignorant". Nigerians who have already suffered the trauma of losing a president in place due to poor health in 2010, Buhari's health has left many people worried and worried.
Suspension of Chief Justice
On January 25, 2019, President Buhari suspended the President of the Federal Supreme Court, Walter Onnoghen, provoking protests from many Nigerians. Although the decision may be good because it is part of the President's anti-corruption campaign following the Chief Justice's charge by the Code of Conduct Tribunal for failing to disclose his property, the timing is bad selected. Indeed, a few weeks before the election, the Chief Justice, who presides over the Supreme Court, would control any legal challenge to the election result, if any. This left many Nigerians and observers concerned.
Atiku described the president's action as "geared to affect the outcome of the 2019 presidential elections". But on January 28, the Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, rejected this allegation by pointing out this, the suspension "has nothing to do with the upcoming elections".
MISSIONS OF ELECTION OBSERVERS
On January 27, 2019, CENI announced election observation missions, which included national and international observers. Among the local observers, 116 institutions were accredited, including Action Aid Nigeria, Al-Habibiyyah Islamic Society, Center for Democracy and Development (CDD), Center for Disabled Citizens, Christian Council of Nigeria, Bar Association. Nigerian Rights Monitoring Group, The Albino Foundation, Initiative for the Empowerment of Women and Global Impact, and Youth Initiative for Better Nigeria. With regard to international observation missions, 28 institutions have been accredited, including the African Bar Association, the African Union, the British High Commission, the European Union, the International Commission on Human Rights, Nigerians in Diaspora Organization (NIDO), Pan African Women Projects, Commonwealth and the Embbady of the United States.
ANY OTHER ELECTION?
In addition to Nigerians who would elect a president, they would also have the opportunity to vote for new legislators in the National Assembly elections the same day, where several candidates would be elected to occupy respectively the 360 and 109 seats in the House of Representatives. and in the Senate. . On March 2, 2019, Nigerians would return to the polls for the elections for the governorship and the state badembly chamber.
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Cornelius is an independent researcher who holds a Master's degree in Defense Science and International Politics and a Bachelor's degree in History and Geography.
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