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According to Michel Barnier, a Brexit without agreement is more and more likely after the rejection by the House of Commons of all alternatives to Theresa May's agreement.
Speaking in Brussels, the EU's chief negotiator said that MPs should proceed with a "positive vote" in order to avoid a Brexit on the cliff on April 12.
"No agreement has ever been our desired or intended scenario," Barnier told an audience at an event organized by a focus group. "But the EU27 is now ready. It becomes, day after day, more likely.
The EU official outlined three scenarios: an agreement this week on the Prime Minister's agreement or a variant thereof, a null agreement or a lengthy extension of Article 50 requiring "solid justification".
Cabinet meets
Theresa May's cabinet will meet to discuss the outcome of the indicative votes. Not having any other choice to get the majority from the deputies, she could still decide to move to a fourth "significant vote" in her market.
Parliament can choose to debate again
Parliament may decide to use another series of indicative votes.
Long extension accepted?
If the parliament or the UK government changes strategy, a lengthy extension of Article 50 might be necessary. EU leaders would decide how long they would hold on that date. EU negotiator Michel Barnier suggested that the EU could grant a long extension for three reasons: for a second referendum, general elections or because the Parliament wants to re-examine the political declaration.
Possible no deal departure?
If Theresa May's agreement is not pbaded by parliament, then, without further significant development, this would be the date on which the UK will leave the EU without agreement.
Can you start with an agreement?
If the case of Theresa May Is pbad the Parliament, that would be the scheduled date for the departure of the United Kingdom from the EU.
European legislative elections
Unless there is a longer extension of Article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the participation of the United Kingdom.
Conservative leadership election?
If Theresa May's agreement is approved by Parliament, she is expected to withdraw after the UK's departure from the European Union on March 22, triggering a run for the leadership of the conservative party. Although some suggestions have been made, it could be held during the summer for the competition to take place after the next Conservative conference in October.
Such is the frustration of European capitals in the face of Westminster's failure around a vision of its future after Brexit, so that it appears more and more that a long delay to Beyond May 22 can only be guaranteed in the case of a general election or a second referendum.
Barnier said that an extension beyond the end of May, forcing the UK to participate in the European legislative elections, "would entail significant risks for the EU and that a justification solid would therefore be necessary ".
He said EU companies had warned Brussels "against the cost of an extension of uncertainty". The United Kingdom prolonging its Member State status while still seeking to leave with a negotiated agreement "could compromise our decision-making autonomy".
On Monday night, MPs rejected the four options proposed in the Commons to break the Brexit stalemate, albeit marginally, leaving hope that a solution could be found later in the week.
Barnier pointed out that the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, had said Monday that the patience of the EU had reached its limit. "Personally, as a negotiator, I still have patience."
The motion on the customs union presented by former Conservative Chancellor Ken Clarke was rejected by a margin of only three votes, ie 273 votes against 276, while a second referendum on Brexit was lower by a majority of 12 votes.
A customs union means that countries agree to apply zero or very low duties on products sold between them and to collectively apply the same tariffs to products imported from the rest of the world. International trade agreements are then negotiated by the block as a whole.
For the EU, this means that the agreements are negotiated by Brussels, although the governments of the Member States have agreed on their terms of reference and approve the final agreement. The EU has trade agreements with 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, that the UK is struggling to integrate into post-Brexit bilateral agreements.
Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU Customs Union say that Britain needs to enter into its own agreements in order to take advantage of economies with growth in the United States. fastest in the world. However, they have never explained why Germany exports more than three times the value of its goods to China in relation to Britain, while being part of the customs union of the United Kingdom. # 39; EU.
Jennifer Rankin
The agreement of the "Common Market 2.0" to the Norwegian, backed by Nick Boles, who then dramatically resigned the Conservative Party bad, was also rejected by 261 votes to 282, despite the support of the Labor Party and of the Scottish party. Only 33 Conservative MPs supported it.
MEPs should again try to hold indicative votes on Wednesday, as options have probably been further reduced. If Parliament supported a customs union, the political declaration on future relations with the EU could be quickly changed.
This sweet compromise on the Brexit has been defended as a plan B to leave the European Union.
It is based on Norway's relations with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union, but within the single market. According to this plan, the United Kingdom should join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which would then allow it to participate in the European Union. European Economic Area (EEA).
The "plus" in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which should be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and the UK agreed on a specific trade agreement.
This option has the advantage of being as close as possible to the European Union without full membership, which would eliminate the need for problematic technical support for Northern Ireland. Like Norway, the United Kingdom would be outside the common fisheries and agriculture policies and would not be subject to the European Court of Justice.
But it crosses an essential red line for the Brexiters by maintaining freedom of movement, one of the prerequisites for joining the single market. It would also limit the ability of the United Kingdom to negotiate its own trade agreements during the discussion of a new customs regime. And this would require continued financial contributions to the EU without influence, as the UK would have no more MEPs and no seat in the European Council. Nor is it clear that the United Kingdom would be welcomed in Efta.
However, at a five-hour cabinet meeting on Tuesday, the prime minister also tended to suggest that his agreement was defeated in relation to an agreement to support a customs union, for the purpose of finally get the ratification of its agreement.
Barnier suggested that, in one case as in the other, the UK could still leave the EU by 22 May at the latest in order to avoid having to hold European elections.
"We have always said that we can accept a customs union or a relationship similar to that of the Norwegian model," he said. "The political declaration can accommodate that today."
He made it clear that in the case of a prolonged extension of Article 50, the EU would not open negotiations on the future trade agreement, which, according to it, can not to take place once the withdrawal agreement settled.
In the case of a Brexit without agreement, he said he expected the UK to try to return to the negotiating table a few months later, but "in this case, I will not do it. withdrawal agreement that we put at the beginning of the negotiation still be there: citizens' rights, Ireland, financial obligations ".
"During a long extension, there will be no renegotiation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, no, never," Barnier told an audience at the event organized by the European Policy Center. "There will be no negotiations on future relationships. We can not, legally speaking, negotiate with a Member State on future relations. It's as simple as that. "
Barnier lamented the lack of debate in the UK on his relations with the EU after Brexit, whether in the referendum or in the months that followed. "There is no obligation to leave the European Union when leaving the Customs Union, no obligation to leave the single market. I did not see the debate on the national interests of the United Kingdom. "
Guy Verhofstadt, European Parliament negotiator on Brexit, tweeted Monday night: "The House of Commons is voting against all options again. A difficult Brexit becomes almost inevitable. On Wednesday, the UK has one last chance to break the stalemate or face the abyss. "
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