Oil will gain as recovery in demand picks up, but virus risks remain: Reuters poll

September 30 (Reuters) – Oil prices will see modest gains for the rest of the year and into 2022 as consumption resumes its recovery to pre-pandemic levels, with a likely resurgence of COVID-19 that still looming in the outlook, a Reuters poll showed Thursday.

The survey of 39 participants predicted that Brent would average $ 68.87 per barrel in 2021, up from consensus $ 68.02 in August, when the deviation from the Delta variant led to the first downward revision of prices. outlook for 2021 in about nine months.

Citing a faster recovery in fuel demand and supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico caused by storms, Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end Brent forecast to $ 90, but reported a new potential virus variant and a surge in OPEC + production as risks. Read more

“Growth in demand will continue to support oil prices, offset by the expected increase in OPEC + production by the end of 2021,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president of oil research. at WoodMac.

Brent has averaged $ 68 this year, but topped $ 80 a barrel this week amid rising demand and expectations that producers will decide to maintain supply at the United Nations meeting. oil-exporting countries next week.

“OPEC + will be cautious about adding barrels, but does not want prices to exceed $ 80 for an extended period, in part because of concerns about the impact on the sustainability of the economic recovery and the impact on the economy. long term on demand, ”said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.

“They are still worried about the increase in production by US shale producers,” Paisie added.

Julius Baer analyst Norbert Rücker said “occasional pandemic hiccups” have added a level of uncertainty, while growth rates are expected to slow as economic activity returns to pre-crisis levels. pandemic.

The poll predicted U.S. crude to average $ 66.13 per barrel in 2021 from $ 65.63 last month.

Reporting by Arundhati Sarkar, additional reporting by Swati Verma in Bengaluru; edited by Arpan Varghese, Noah Browning and Jason Neely

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.