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Negotiating the news: United States – Payroll (NFP)
Updates to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may do nothing to reduce the weak US dollar after the Federal Reserve meeting, as the economy is expected to create 165,000 jobs in January.
Any consensus below the market may hit the greenback already shaken, because the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) abandons the forward-looking forecasts of monetary policy and the central bank could be more willing to maintain the reference rate of reference in 2019. as "the case for raising rates has somewhat weakened".
In turn, a mediocre trend could lead to a bullish reaction from EUR / USD, but another NFP publication better than expected could result in a larger decline in the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar because it encourages the FOMC to further normalize its monetary policy. year. Register and join David Song LIVE, a DailyFX Currency badyst, to discuss possible configurations.
Impact of the US NFP report on the EUR / USD during the previous publication
December 2018 United States – Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
EUR / USD chart at 5 minutes
Non-farm payroll in the United States increased by 312K in December after increasing 176K revised the previous month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased from 3.7% per year to 3.7% per year, the participation rate of the labor force increased from 62.9 to 63.1%. % during the same period. Further examination of the report showed that the average hourly wage rose from 3.1% in November to 3.2%, while the average weekly hours indicator increased from 34.4 to 34.5.
The reaction to the NFP report stronger than expected was short-lived, with EUR / USD bouncing after a session low of 1.1366 to end the day at 1.1397. Check out the DailyFX's detailed News Trading Guide for our 8-step strategy.
Daily chart EUR / USD
- Do not forget that the breakout over the November high (1.1500) offers constructive prospects for the EUR / USD, the region of 1.1290 (expanding 61.8%) offering short support. term.
- Need to return above the target of 1.1510 (38.2% extension) to open the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1640 (23.6% extension) at 1.1680 (50% retracement) ), the next area of interest is around 1.1810 (61.8% retracement), which largely corresponds to the September peak (1.1815).
For a more in-depth badysis, see the 1st quarter 2019 forecast for EUR / USD.
Additional trading resources
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
Follow me on Twitter @DavidJSong.
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