Premier League Title Race: Why does history suggest that Liverpool will be at the top of the standings at the end of the season

Liverpool has a five-point lead at the top of the Premier League at the end of January.

Here we look at how the other teams have been in the title race since this stage of the season in the history of the competition.

History on the Liverpool side

In the previous 26 seasons of the Premier League, the top of the standings at the end of January had won the title 20 times. The exceptions are Manchester United, Norwich (1993), Newcastle (1996) and Arsenal (2003), who come back behind them, and the Gunners who sting on United three times (1998, 2002 and 2004).

Lead below average

In these 26 seasons, the average lead held by the leading team at the end of January is 5.2 points. Liverpool's five-point lead puts them slightly below that figure.

The most important gap of all the teams at this stage is 15 points, achieved by Manchester City last season and United in 2001. Chelsea was 14 points ahead in 2006 and 13 points in 1994.

The collapse of Newcastle

By the end of January, only one team with a lead of six points or more had failed to win the title – Newcastle in 1996. The Magpies had nine points in advance but they surrendered at of the last match to allow United to enter.

Manager Kevin Keegan succumbed to the mind games of his boss, Sir Alex Ferguson, exploding with his often imitated speech "I would love him". United finally won by four points.

Other returns

The other most important fights saw United return from Arsenal with five points behind in 2003, while Arsenal recovered a four-point deficit at the end of January 1998 to give United.

However, not all statistics at this stage of the season can say the same, as tracks may continue to change hands. City led United to the goal difference only in 2012 before scoring two points in advance. They then dropped that position to eight points behind, but made a remarkable recovery to win on goal difference.

First timekeepers

Liverpool's current position compares favorably with that of other Premier League winners. Arsenal was to be four points behind at the end of January to win his first title in 1998, and United outshot Norwich by one point in 1993.

City only dominated the goal difference in 2012, while Leicester were three points ahead in 2016 and Blackburn four in 1995. Only Chelsea, 10 points ahead in 2005, had a huge lead.

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