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Several senior military and police officials in Madagascar have been arrested following an alleged assassination attempt against President Andry Rajoelina. Moina Spooner, of The Conversation Africa, asked political expert Solofo Randrianja to provide an overview of Rajoelina’s tenure and what could have contributed to these developments.
Madagascar has a history of political turmoil. What are the main causes?
Madagascar’s tumultuous political history has been characterized by several coups d’état. Since independence from France in 1960, there have been four major political crises in 1972, 1991, 2002, 2009. Each of them led to a change of regime and constitution. They have also caused serious economic crises.
The political crisis usually begins in the same way: strikes and street protests in urban areas. But these movements are generally not organized by the opposition, they are mainly motivated by the collapse of the interior of the government and its supporters. This is due to a long hold on power – as we have seen with Didier Ratsiraka, the oldest president of Madagascar – which is characterized by corruption, nepotism and the erosion of democracy. An additional aggravating element, since 1972, is the participation of elements of the army in political life.
Based on these elements, Madagascar appears to be heading for a new political crisis, much more complex and probably more violent than the previous ones. Indeed, Rajoelina has demonstrated his determination to stay in power and has used extra-constitutional methods in the past.
Rumors of an assassination attempt reveal that all is not well. It is important to note that this is not the first time that Rajoelina has claimed a threat to her leadership or her life. During his tenure, which began in 2009, Rajoelina claimed to have been threatened by at least four attacks.
We cannot be sure if this latest “threat” is an excuse for the president to further consolidate power and suppress the opposition, or if it reveals deep dissatisfaction with the political direction of the country.
Either way, it reveals deep political turmoil.
How did Madagascar behave under Rajoelina’s leadership?
Rajoelina has a background in the entertainment, media and advertising industry. He decided to go into politics in 2007 following a clash with the authorities over billboards in the Malagasy capital, Antananarivo.
Supported by a few personalities from the wealthy elite of Madagascar, Rajoelina became mayor of Antananarivo and a leading figure in the opposition to the government of Marc Ravalomanana. In 2009, street protests were organized against the government of Ravalomanana, which Rajoelina accused of embezzlement of public funds and dictatorship. When these did not make a change, a military regiment staged a coup and Rajoelina declared himself president. He promised to draft a new constitution and hold elections within two years. The unconstitutional transfer of power by the military to Rajoelina has been widely condemned both locally and internationally.
Amid allegations of electoral fraud and low turnout, Rajoelina again became Madagascar’s leader in 2018. This follows a campaign backed by a powerful media and a propaganda machine. The main Malagasy dailies supported Rajoelina, as well as several radio stations.
Under Rajoelina’s leadership, Madagascar suffered. His campaign was largely based on impossible populist promises that he couldn’t keep because they are so far-fetched. One of them is the ambitious “Initiative for the Emergence of Madagascar” which has disappeared from policy making. Another is the construction of cable cars in Antananarivo.
Rajoelina made questionable economic choices. For example, he opened the country up to exploitation by his friends. An example of this was the unbridled cutting and illegal sale of rosewood. Rajoelina ruled the country for the first time between 2009 and 2013 – the most intensive period of rosewood exploitation in the country’s history. Loading rosewood onto trucks at the port of Toamasina (Tamatave) in 2014. Pierre-Yves Babelon / Shutterstock
Madagascar is a naturalist’s paradise. Over 80% of the island’s flora and fauna are found nowhere else on earth. Rosewood, which provides Madagascar’s unique lemurs with important habitats, is extremely valuable and heavily trafficked. Although its trade has been banned in Madagascar for decades, under Rajoelina the government granted brief exemptions and even arrested activists who tried to stop the illegal trade.
Rajoelina has also undertaken several vanity projects which include the construction of colossal sports stadiums. These do not reflect the needs of the country – considered one of the poorest countries in the world.
In 2019, it was estimated that around 75% of the population lived below the international poverty line on USD 1.90 per day. Madagascar also has the fourth highest rate of chronic malnutrition in the world – nearly one in two children under five is stunted.
There are also signs that the democratic space is shrinking and the government has become dysfunctional. Rajoelina recently sacked all his ministers.
On top of that, Rajoelina has done a terrible job in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. He touted a scientifically unproven herbal remedy – the organics COVID-19 – as a cure for COVID-19 and went so far as to start producing it in capsule form.
It was in this context that the news broke of plans for an attempted coup or assassination in some reports.
What to do so that the situation does not worsen?
It’s hard to say, because it seems inevitable. The country is in the throes of a deep economic crisis. The ideal solution would be a reform of institutions such as empowering local authorities and grassroots communities, involving them in decision-making – the question is who would do it?
The opposition does not seem to be an alternative on its own. Most political parties lack the financial resources to engage in competition. Opposition figures have also suffered harassment.
The almost usual model – using a motley coalition to get rid of those who are currently in power – seems to be the only way for there to be a change. Unfortunately, once in power, this would likely provide some semblance of stability until the next crisis, when the ruling coalition begins to fall apart.
Solofo Randrianja does not work, advise, own shares, receive funds from any organization that could benefit from this article, and has not declared any affiliation other than his research organization.
By Solofo Randrianja, professor, University of Toamasina
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