RBA statement under discussion to confirm recent bearish bias



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  • The AUD / USD is flirting with 0.7100 on Friday.
  • The RBA governor's mismatch and the general risk-risk sentiment had a negative impact on the Australian dollar.
  • The quarterly monetary policy statement of the RBA is in the spotlight for a new impetus.

The Australian dollar was little changed around 0.7100 against the US dollar at the start of Friday's Asian session. AUD / USD has not performed well over the past two days, doubts about future movements in Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy and general sentiment of risk versus disappointment risk disappointing traders Australian. In the future, investors are waiting for the quarterly monetary policy statement from the Australian central bank to confirm the latest bearish bias.

The Australian dollar collapsed on Wednesday after RBA governor Phillip Lowe adopted a long-standing bias of the bank to give equal probability to any policy change. The currency, often considered as a barometer of risk, rebounded weaknesses in the aftermath of the pessimism caused by the trade agreement between the two countries and the downgrading of the European Commission compared to growth forecasts for the euro zone.

On Thursday, Councilor Lawrence Kudlow at the White House downplayed the chances of success of the trade agreement between the United States and China, saying that there was a "considerable distance" between the two giants when negotiations. The same thing can also be known in the report released Friday by Reuters that mentions the refusal of US President Donald Trump to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping before the end of the 90 day truce period, ie March 1st. The European Commission is reducing growth forecasts for the euro area for 2019 and 2020.

While the market has already reacted to the evolution of confidence in the risk and signal of a radical decision on the part of the RBA to support rising rates as the next decision, the monetary policy statement The Australian central bank's quarterly report will be closely monitored to confirm the recent bearish bias communicated by Governor Lowe.

If the central bank reiterates its remarks following Lowe's remarks in light of the challenges facing Australia's main trading partner, China, it is very likely that the AUD / USD will see a further decline.

AUD / USD Technical Analysis

The AUD / USD should slide below the support level of 0.7070 to aim at the rest points of 0.7015 and 0.6980.

On the upside, the 0.7150 and 0.7200 could offer immediate resistance to the pair.

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