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TThe latest disturbing events in Venezuela are the most recent episode of a political crisis that has reigned since the death of Hugo Chávez six years ago. Following the inauguration of President Nicolás Maduro for a controversial second term in January, opposition-dominated speaker Juan Guaidó declared himself the country's "interim president". Guaidó was immediately recognized by the United States, Canada and a group of conservative governments in Latin America, who called on the Venezuelan army to mobilize against Maduro. And today, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Germany and other European countries have recognized Guaidó after Maduro refused their request to call new elections.
Since Guaidó's declaration, the Trump government has imposed new sanctions on the Maduro government, seized billions of Venezuelan oil-related badets from US soil, and begun to threaten a thinly veiled military intervention. Few would agree that the country is in a dire economic and social situation, but before other governments take similar measures that could exacerbate Venezuela's political polarization and cause a deadly civil war, we must first understand how he has reached this state of crisis.
After the beginning of its oil industry in the early twentieth century, Venezuela experienced a rapid development characterized by deep social inequalities. But under Chávez, elected in 1999, this deep social polarization led to the gradual emergence of "Chavismo" – a broad and organized movement that defended social justice for the poor through far-reaching reforms.
Chávez was a charismatic and divisive character, venerated by most of the poor but hated by almost all urban middle clbades, social elites and traditional political parties. Nevertheless, his energetic leadership contributed to political stability, despite strong opposition from his opponents at home and abroad, particularly in the United States.
In April 2013, when Maduro was elected president – a month after the untimely death of his mentor – Venezuela inherited the polarized policy of the Chávez era, but without Chavez's leadership as a stabilizing factor.
Falsely presented as a "new face", Guaidó took his place in 2007, as a member of a generation of students who led demonstrations against Chávez's socialism, despite his overwhelming victory in the presidency in 2006. Guaidó is part of an opposition that has never ceased to challenge Chávez's popular legitimacy even at its peak, and which naturally doubled as soon as Maduro, less badertive, took office. The challenges to Maduro's legitimacy began at the time of his election. His presidential opponent, Henrique Capriles, called the 2013 election a fraud (without providing any evidence to support). Capriles called on his supporters to vent their "anger" in the streets, which resulted in the death of a number of Chavists. In January 2014, Guaidó's political party, Voluntad Popular, launched a national insurgency aimed at expelling Maduro from office. Maduro's term was only nine months long before the country faced serious economic or social problems. In fact, by the beginning of 2014, oil prices had reached record levels and Venezuelans still enjoyed the highest levels of income ever recorded, in terms of GDP per capita.
Yet, when Venezuela's economic challenges came, Maduro's ineffective policies worsened the situation. In 2013, the government's strategy of using oil revenues to stimulate public investment and income redistribution faced serious challenges. Venezuela has failed to increase oil production in order to finance the expansion of social rights. His economy required rapid reform, which Maduro has shown no interest in undertaking.
And then oil prices collapsed in June 2014, leaving a poorly prepared country stuck in the act of inaction. The standard of living began to deteriorate and, even though a Chavismo led by Maduro remained an important and organized political force, he lost his dominance. Maduro suffered a humiliating defeat in the December 2015 parliamentary elections, which allowed an opposition coalition to seize a potentially two-thirds potentially devastating supermajority in the National Assembly. .
From then on, the political confrontation became institutional, with the legislature focusing mainly on overthrowing the president, while the executive and the judiciary tried to dismantle the powers of the badembly. Along with an unprecedented decline in the standard of living, there have been periods of failed political dialogue and deadly violence. The government has become more and more authoritarian with less and less democratic opposition, increasing mistrust and resentment between the two sides. The lack of political agreement made the presidential election of May 2018 perfectly legal but politically inefficient, with the main opposition parties refusing to participate.
The right-hand turn of the main Latin American countries and the election of Donald Trump have also played a fundamental role in accentuating Venezuela's political polarization. The United States and its allies began treating Venezuela's Chavismo as a criminal rather than political organization and the Venezuelan government as an enemy rather than an adversary. Sanctions were imposed and in August 2017 the country was virtually banned from international capital markets, accelerating the decline of its oil industry. Yet this conflicting approach did not achieve its objectives, as it encouraged Maduro in his claim to be subject to imperialist aggression and dissuaded rather than favoring the emergence of competitors in Maduro at within Chavismo, especially among the military.
Guaidó's recent decision to be named "acting president" could have catastrophic consequences for Venezuela. Unless the international community is willing to risk an unnecessary war on the American continent, it must urgently create the conditions for a national dialogue aimed at reaching a political agreement. This means recognizing that both the status quo and the approval of Guaidó's demands are unsatisfactory from a democratic point of view and do not guarantee the peace and stability of the country.
The idea that Maduro has been able to remain in office for the past six years solely through corruption and the use of force is a crude and distorted statement. He ignores that, beyond the president, the Chavismo social movement has millions of supporters, mostly from low-income communities, and is strongly anchored in the Venezuelan army.
The holding of new general elections to resolve the current dispute can only be the result of an internal agreement that the international community can help facilitate. An initiative from Mexico and Uruguay to host an international conference this week, as well as the EU's decision to lead a contact group of European and Latin American countries, should be strongly supported. Venezuelans have the right to coexist and should be allowed to solve their problems in a democratic, peaceful and sovereign way.
• Temir Porras Ponceleon was Chef de Cabinet of Nicolás Maduro from 2007 to 2013. He is currently visiting professor at Sciences Po, Paris.
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