Rising hiring rates raise the economy – and the chances of Donald Trump's reelection

The lowest unemployment rate in half a century. More than 260,000 new jobs. And higher hourly wages.

"I'm going to get into the economy," US President Donald Trump said Friday. And why not?

The new series of sunny day job numbers has provided new evidence of a strong national economy – and a great political advantage for Trump just as the 2020 presidential campaign begins to intensify. The stocks are reaching or reaching record levels, as the president often notes.

Democrats highlighted regional disparities in the government's new report. And the overall income inequality has not diminished.

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But Democrats struggling to deny a new term to the Republican president are beginning to recognize the weight of their challenge: Since the Second World War, no incumbent president has ever lost his reelection in a growing economy.

Even critics of Trump are forced to admit that the state of the economy could help it to go to the polls.

"Compared to all the other terrible aspects of Trump's track record, the economy is more of an badet to him," said Geoff Garin, an experienced pollster whose clients include Priorities USA, the most powerful super PAC of politics democratic.

Indeed, it was a holiday for Trump and his allies, who were aware of recent warnings that the economy could slow down this year.

President Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said the United States had entered a "very strong and sustainable cycle of prosperity." He gave all the credit to his boss: "He is president of all the economy".

Most of the time, the US economy is in great shape. It is growing at a rate of about 3%, companies are posting more jobs than there are jobless workers and wage growth, long the weak point of the economy. Economy, it's accelerated.

All of these trends contribute to broadening the population spectrum from the first five years after the Great Recession.

Low-income workers actually see substantial wage gains, larger than those of others. In March, a quarter of the poorest workers earned 4.4% more than a year ago, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. The richest quarter rose 3%.

Low-income workers had begun to outpace their better-paid counterparts in 2015, so this is not a Trump phenomenon. And part of the increase has been due to minimum wage increases of more than two dozen states.

The news is not good for everyone.

According to data from the Atlanta Fed, workers in metropolitan areas still benefit from larger wage increases than those in small towns or rural areas. In fact, this gap has widened since the election of Trump.

And the overall income inequality has not diminished. The top 5% of wealthy Americans earned 3.4 times the worker's median wage in 2018, according to the left-wing Economic Policy Institute. That's 3.3 times more than in 2016.

Barbara Carlos, a county archivist, said in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, in an area Trump had occupied three years ago, that the president's policy had helped many people, even though she had found little to say. economic benefits.

"I think he should get credit when it should," said Bartos, a 69-year-old registered Democrat who supported Hillary Clinton. "And I think he's helped a lot of people but he's left a lot." & # 39;

Three hundred miles west in Cleveland, another former Clinton supporter, Jessica Wieber, 42-year-old IT director, said she felt "pretty good" with her economic situation.

"I think it's had a big impact," she explained about Trump's impact on the economy, adding that the tax breaks granted to companies have allowed those to hire more workers.

"I hope this will help reverberate a bit," said Wieber, a single mother with four children.

Among the largely positive news for Trump, his friends and opponents wonder if he can stay focused on the economy during the course of the 2020 contest. Lulled by equally positive news in the past, he says he is still in the dark. is turned to more controversial topics such as immigration, the investigation of Russia and personal attacks against rivals.

Democrats, indeed, are counting on him to change the subject.

"Economic indicators would normally be incredibly positive for an incumbent president," said poll pollster Jefrey Pollock of Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's presidential campaign. & # 39;

At this point, 18 months before polling day, Trump's political stance is much weaker than economic figures suggest.

The latest CNN survey reveals that 43% of Americans approve of how he manages his job as president. It is even 56% of respondents who declare to approve its management of the economy, a record for the president since taking office.

He receives lower marks for other issues, including health care, immigration and foreign policy.

In addition to some candidates, the General Social Survey, a respected national survey, found that the proportion of Americans satisfied with their finances has returned to its pre-recession level.

In 2018, about one-third expressed satisfaction with their financial situation, compared to 23% in 2010. About 4 in 10 said their finances had improved over the previous few years, while only 15% had the impression that they were deteriorating.

In 2010, more than double said their financial situation was deteriorating.

Last month, according to the government's report, the unemployment rate for African Americans was 6.7%, up from last May's record of 5.9%. That's more than double the rate for whites. And in 2017, according to the latest available data, the black-and-white income gap has widened: the typical African-American household earned 40,258 USD, while the equivalent figure in white was 68,145 USD .

Nevertheless, unemployment rates in Asia and Latin America reached or equaled record lows in April.

In some ways, the labor market was better in the past.

A much smaller proportion of Americans work than in the late 1990s, the last time unemployment was nearly as low. This is partly because the United States is aging and the baby boomers are retiring.

However, even among workers aged 25 to 54, which eliminates the impact of retirement and increased college attendance, a lower percentage of people work: in April, 79.7% were employed . This figure peaked at 81.9% in 2000.

How much all this will affect the election is an open question.

Ray Fair, a Yale University economist who uses economic data to model election results, said that the state of the economy during the first three quarters of a year election counted more than the rest of the term of a president.

The Fair model suggests a Trump victory in 2020, if the economy continues on its current momentum.

However, "This does not take into account personalities," Fair said. "Trump is an unusual person."