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The sight of supporters of President Donald Trump storming the United States Capitol on Wednesday revealed an American political landscape that has become destructively partisan.
President-elect Joe Biden has not mince words about the frenzied masses besieging Capitol Hill. “It was an emotional crowd, insurgents, national terrorists,” he said Thursday.
Most countries have managed to largely bypass this acrimonious dumpster fire over the past four years by avoiding appearing to favor one side of the U.S. political divide over another.
Not Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom and its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), have a very close relationship with the Trump administration.
Throughout his presidency, Trump has shown almost unwavering support for Riyadh, despite objections from some members of Congress who have not been so willing to turn a blind eye to Saudi Arabia’s appalling rights record. humans.
MBS is said to be very good friends with Trump’s son-in-law and senior White House adviser Jared Kushner.
Riyadh was delighted with Trump’s 2018 decision to unilaterally withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal with world powers and to enact a torrent of sanctions to cripple the Iranian economy.
And when U.S. shale producers faced an existential threat to their existence during the fall in crude prices last year, Saudi Arabia – at Trump’s behest – agreed to call for a truce. in the oil price war it started.
But this week, as Trump prepares to leave the Oval Office, Riyadh seized the moment to remove at least one foreign policy puzzle for the new Democratic administration by taking an important step towards healing its rift with Qatar. .
“Ending the rift with Qatar is not a major issue for Congress or the Biden administration. But that removes one thing from the list of problems the incoming administration would have with Saudi Arabia, ”Gregory Gause, professor of international relations at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, told Al Jazeera.
You really are the first time that the Saudi-American relationship has been linked to partisan politics.
A narrow window to reset
The US-Saudi relationship is not based on common values but on mutual security and commercial interests.
For three quarters of a century, this was enough to persuade the Democratic and Republican administrations of the United States to maintain the marriage of convenience, and Riyadh to play ball with anyone who makes their home at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
But the perceived agnosticism toward major U.S. political parties that traditionally characterized Riyadh’s engagement with Washington has dissolved under Trump’s watch.
“You really are the first time that the Saudi-American relationship has been linked to partisan politics,” Gause said. “A large number of Democratic politicians in Congress and the Democratic foreign policy elite view Saudi Arabia not only as a problematic partner, but as a partner who has chosen to embrace the Republican Party.”
Saudi Arabia has few easy options to put relations with a new Democratic administration on a more amicable footing.
Improving its record on women’s rights would have helped. But Riyadh showed no willingness to do so when reports surfaced late last month that prominent women’s rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul had been sentenced to nearly six years in prison by a Saudi anti-terrorism tribunal.
At the beginning. We’re like, OK, how are they gonna get by?
Ending the war in Yemen would require a significant diplomatic effort. The same would apply to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries in the MENA region in the normalization of relations with Israel.
Strengthening relations with Qatar, by comparison, is a fruit within reach.
On the one hand, the air, land and sea blockade of Qatar carried out by Arabia for three and a half years has failed to bend Doha to the will of Riyadh and its partners – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. ‘Egypt -, in particular by demanding the closure of Qatar. Al Jazeera Media Network (full disclosure: I am employed by Al Jazeera Media Network).
The blockade has undoubtedly inflicted economic suffering on Doha. That’s what sanctions do. But with one of the highest per capita incomes in the world, Qatar has deep pockets to withstand an economic attack.
This was not the only weakness of what turned out to be ill-conceived policy. The stranded countries have failed to garner comprehensive international support for their actions, leaving Doha the opportunity to find new trading partners and develop new supply chains. What he did.
Riyadh and its partners also made the crucial mistake of underestimating Qatar’s strategic importance to the United States.
“The biggest US air base in the Middle East is in Qatar, and Qatar had what is arguably America’s best lobbyist on its side, namely the Pentagon,” Gause said.
An Air Force F-22 Raptor outside Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar [File: Staff Sgt. Chris Drzazgowski/US Air Force via AP]
“The Emirates and the Saudis had a disproportionate belief and a mistaken belief in the ability of the Trump administration to force the Qataris into line, and I think that was their fundamental mistake,” he added. .
Another crucial design flaw: the blockade lacked an obvious way out for the nations that initiated it.
“It’s pretty clear that they haven’t given thought to this thing,” Jim Krane, an energy researcher at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Al Jazeera. “At the very beginning. We’re like, OK, how are they going to get away with this?”
A change of the guard in Washington, however, is an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and its partners to undo a failed policy. But the window is narrow.
“Is it really smart for Saudi Arabia and the other three players in this area, the other instigators, if you really want to wait, pass this opportunity and potentially wait another four or eight years for the stars to align?” during at least consider a reconciliation? Krane asked.
The return of the blockade will not leave Riyadh with a blank slate in Washington. MBS made many mistakes in his march to power. Some, like the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, can never be reversed. But fixing the barriers with Qatar is a way to score points with the new Biden administration and start to pull his kingdom out of the messy quagmire of American partisan politics.
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