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Every few years it is devastating to see the same tragedy: a climate cycle that leads to debilitating drought and hunger in East Africa, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in Ethiopia, Somalia and in Kenya.
The meteorological cycle responsible for these episodes is a “La Niña” accentuated by climate change. La Niña is driven by cooling ocean temperatures in the East Pacific Sea, causing periods of drought in East Africa.
Human-induced warming in the Western Pacific Ocean is making matters worse. Global emissions have caused the western Pacific to warm rapidly, bringing more rain around Indonesia and worrying but predictable rainfall deficits in arid and food insecure eastern Kenya in Somalia and Ethiopia.
As described in my book, Drought Flood Fire, typically East Africa receives two rainy seasons each year, from October to December and from March to May. Now with climate change we are seeing more frequent and extremely dangerous consecutive failures of these rains.
Before 1999, a drought – when the rainy season is bad or missed – could occur once every five or six years. But since 1999, light rains from March to May have occurred every two to three years.
From 2010 to 2011, consecutive droughts contributed to plunging Somalia into famine. More than 260,000 people have died, half of them children. Then, in 2016/2017 and 2020/2021, consecutive droughts hit the region again.
Fortunately, we can now often predict these droughts using climate models and Earth observations.
For example, I was part of a group of scientists who sounded the alarm and predicted that food security in the eastern Horn of Africa was likely to deteriorate in 2020, due to below average rainfall. In the coming months. We did this through the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, one of the leading providers of early warning alerts and analysis on acute food insecurity around the world.
Read more: New use of satellite data helps Africa cope with natural disasters
We have mixed emotions about this: We are happy that our information can help identify food insecure populations before the disaster, but we are dismayed that such populations at risk exist.
We now believe that a devastating drought is likely to recur, in 2021/2022. The sea surface temperature forecast is almost exactly the same as last year, and we expect unusually warm conditions in the western Pacific Ocean, combined with cooler temperatures from the Pacific and La Niña, to be likely to produce another sequence of dry seasons.
Kenya has already declared a drought-related emergency. With more drought shocks likely on the horizon, it will be important for governments and other actors to be proactive.
Without effective early action, all data collection and modeling is of limited value, and people end up in pain.
Prediction opportunities
As part of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the Climate Hazards Center (of which I am a part) produces rainfall estimate maps that help direct billions of dollars in humanitarian aid to tens of millions of people.
In general, climate models can predict where exceptionally warm water will be. And we can use these predictions to diagnose droughts, often before they happen.
For example, when the eastern Pacific is warmer, it amplifies the intensity of droughts in northern Ethiopia and southern Africa. While this additional heat occurs in the Western Pacific and the Eastern Indian Ocean, it contributes to successive droughts in Kenya, Somalia and southern Ethiopia.
Understanding how climate change contributes to unusually warm ocean conditions helps us make these predictions. And that means we can help anticipate food insecurity.
In 2016/2017, we used observed sea surface temperatures to help motivate a joint alert that supported improved humanitarian responses; when the 2017 rains failed in Somalia, aid was already arriving for millions of people.
Now, in 2021/2022, we are using La Niña analogues and long-term forecasts of Western Pacific Ocean conditions to make drought forecasts even earlier – anticipating the rainy season from March to May 2022. , which ends eight months in the future, is likely to be poor.
Our ability to make sound climate predictions is improving, but more needs to be done.
What needs to change
The information we generate can and is used to help motivate drought risk management activities. For example, in 2015 and 2018, successful El Niño forecasts predicted dry rainy seasons in southern Africa.
But more needs to be done. The management of drought risk rests on three pillars; drought monitoring and forecasting, vulnerability and risk assessment and drought preparedness, and mitigation and response.
It seems to me that at this point the first pillar has advanced more than pillars two and three.
More interventions are needed to mitigate the disruptive effects of droughts. This would help break the link between climate shocks and cycles of poverty.
Here are some examples of early actions:
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provide money to vulnerable farmers and herders,
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distribution of drought-resistant seeds,
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conduct animal health care campaigns,
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provide complementary feed for livestock,
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provide schools with adequate drinking water, and
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help families with cash payments so they can afford to keep their children in school.
Nonetheless, there have been some exciting developments.
Humanitarian aid agencies, such as the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) and the Red Cross / Red Crescent, are beginning to test “early action” systems that use forecasting in a more meaningful way. proactive. For example, UNOCHA is collaborating with the Ethiopian government in the implementation of an “anticipatory action” framework.
Another path to improved resilience is to improve agricultural decision making. In 2020, the Climate Hazards Center began working with PlantVillage, the Kenya Meteorological Department and ShambaShapeUp to begin providing agricultural observations, forecasts and advice on rainfall to hundreds of thousands of Kenyan farmers. This was done via SMS messages and to millions of Kenyans via television. In 2021, PlantVillage’s reach expanded to include pastoralists.
As described in my book, climate change amplifies the drought-inducing capacities of El Niños and La Niñas. The next five years will most likely bring a strong El Niño, contributing to another horrific drought in northern Ethiopia and another catastrophic drought in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, Mozambique, Madagascar and South Africa . Next year looks likely to bring another streak of La Niña-related droughts across eastern East Africa.
Regional institutions – such as the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), the Southern African Development Community Climate Services Center (SADC CSC) – and some national meteorological agencies are making great efforts. progress in drought monitoring and forecasting. My hope is that the information they provide can be turned into wise action.
The time to begin this transformation is now. Historical precipitation data can be used to identify areas at risk, guiding drought preparedness. We must move from crisis management to risk management.
Chris Funk receives funding from the US Agency for International Development and NASA to support his early warning research in Africa.
By Chris Funk, Affiliate Research Professor, Department of Geography and Director, Climate Hazards Group, University of California Santa Barbara
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