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In general, we have reached a relative utopia of health. Revolutions in pharmacology and medical technology, better nutrition, and improvements in public health care promise a longer and healthier future for our global population.
For all there is to celebrate, this prosperity has a cost. We live in the shadow of an impending pandemic, while age-related neurological diseases, such as Parkinson's disease, threaten to affect us more than ever before, paving the way for a unprecedented medical challenge.
"From here 2040, we can really talk about a pandemic that will cause increased human suffering, as well as exorbitant social and medical costs," warned Patrik Brundin, editor of the Journal of Parkinson's Disease.
A call to arms in Brundin's newspaper highlights what we will do in the decades to come: current figures on Parkinson's disease are expected to double, if not nearly triple, over the next 20 years.
The growing problem is not limited to Parkinson's disease. Dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, should also explode with our aging population, as more of us survive long enough to see our old bodies burdened with conditions that few lived before.
An important part of the problem is the lack of knowledge about the number of neurological diseases of this type that develop initially.
Parkinson's disease has been on our radar since the beginning of the 19th century. In 1817, James Parkinson, a prominent British surgeon, outlined in his treatise the characteristics of this degenerative disease. A trial on shaky paralysis.
Nowadays, the symptoms of shaky extremities, impaired mobility, rigidity and mood changes are related to the loss of dopamine-producing tissues deep within one of the control centers of the body. brain, called basal ganglia.
In 2016, about 6.1 million people worldwide had Parkinson's disease, more than double that of the 1990s.
Although a reduced production of dopamine is not considered lethal, the loss of overall function, combined with the general senescence badociated with aging, produces an average life expectancy of only seven to fourteen years after diagnosis.
Today, about 200,000 people are at risk of dying prematurely each year as a result of this disease.
Twenty years later, the number of people who could be affected could reach 12 million, thanks to the demographic evolution.
Prove that Parkinson's disease starts with changes in intestinal microbes that generally break down the different sources of pesticides, drugs and pollutants in our environment, and that these numbers could increase further.
Curiously, there is another paradoxical factor at work that could even drive the number to 17 million.
More than 50 years ago, researchers observed a strange link between smoking and Parkinson's disease. The relationship is as obvious today as it is confusing: the risk of contracting the disease drops significantly by 40% among long-term smokers.
The exact mechanism behind the relationship is a mystery and, given the wide range of health risks badociated with smoking, it's not advisable to start smoking if the relationship is of cause to effect.
But if that is the case, generations of anti-smoking campaigns could inadvertently contribute to what appears to be an emerging pandemic that is putting a heavy toll on suffering, but also on financial and human resources.
However, in addition to the smoking link, the team also pointed out that environmental factors – such as the byproducts of industrialization in general – could be responsible.
If the news seems depressing, remember this: being warned, it is being warned. We can act now, say the researchers, to make sure these numbers do not become so high.
"Over the past century, society has contrasted polio, bad cancer and HIV pandemics to varying degrees," said neurologist Ray Dorsey of the University of Rochester Medical Center.
"The success of these efforts is based on unbridled activism."
For this reason, Dorsey and his colleagues invite the Parkinson's community – researchers, patients and those at risk – to educate the public about known prevention methods, to advocate for funding and to help promote or search for new models and treatments.
The pandemic is not inevitable, say the researchers.
It will take some effort. But this utopia of health is always within our reach if we continue to work together.
This opinion was published in Journal of Parkinson's Disease.
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