Should LeBron James be excluded from NBA teams?

After his first season as a Los Angeles Lakers member already finished, LeBron James is experiencing time-outs for the first time in 14 years. His plans are already in place: not to prepare for the US team at the 2019 FIBA ​​World Cup, yes, filming Space Jam 2and not get used to the feeling of failure that is extremely unknown.

"I like to be uncomfortable during the off season," recently told Joe Vardon, of L & # 39; Athletic. "I like to be counted. It motivates me. "

James may not have to wait too long for extra motivation. After 14 consecutive selections in one of the three All-NBA teams, including 11 consecutive first-team appearances, LeBron may not be on the end-of-year list for the first time since his rookie season since the beginning of the season. 2003-04.

Each NBA team has five places: one for a center, two for the guards and two for the front. Three All-NBA teams with two front seats mean six places for the front. For a decade and a half, James has been a wise choice for one of those top six positions. But it was not a normal year and this time, James is not sure. Let's review its main competition, starting with …

Locks

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: When you occupy one of the top two places in the most valuable player's hypothetical vote, you will probably make a sure bet to win one of the six following places for the All-NBA category. Antetokounmpo ranks in the top 10 of the NBA in[[[[inhale deeply]goals scored, free throws, points (per game and total), rebounds (same bid), player effectiveness, number of wins, substitute value, player impact rating, plus-minus box, player impact plus- least and real plus-minus. (Ouf.)

The Greek Freak could become the first player with an average of 27 points, 12 rebounds and six badists per game since Oscar Robertson 57 years ago, and the first to win the two most valuable player titles and Defensive player of the year since Hakeem Olajuwon 25 years ago. It's all about leading Milwaukee to the NBA's best record and best field advantage in the 2019 playoffs. The locks do not get much more locked than that.

Paul George, Thunder: Oklahoma City has been struggling in recent months, in part because of two shoulder injuries that affected George's shooting accuracy and allowed Thunder's offense to go off. (OKC is the 28th in a league with 30 teams in points scored per possession since the All Star break.) Woof.) Still, George posts a record high of 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4 badists and 2.1 interceptions per game, all while making more than 3 points than anyone else, but James Harden and Stephen Curry, and keeping the most dangerous threat of opposition every night on behalf of the NBA. 4 defense. Even if George failed to keep the 82, maintaining a level he had never achieved so far for the first 70% of the season should be more than enough to earn him 28 years. his fifth All-NBA nods.

Kevin Durant, warriors: You can see the numbers and see that Durant is 34.9% off the 3-point range – his lowest score since his rookie in Seattle, surprisingly below the league average – and you remember Golden State's difficult situation when Curry was hurt and Durant started the series early in the season, and it looks like KD is having a bad year. And then you look at the rest 26.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5.8 career badists per game; the third percentage of actual shooting among all players displaying a 25% utilization rate, even in case of long distance fall – and you remember that he recorded the highest number of minutes on a elite list sometimes stifled, but the most consistent contributor of the team. We have noticed George's season because he has never been so good; we risk missing out on Durant's season because it seems always it's good. But we should not, and we will have NBA voting time, I guess we will not do it.

James will not finish above these three players. After them, though? Well, your mileage may vary.

The competition

Kawhi Leonard, Raptors: Leonard is interesting in this discussion. His "load management" plan, which lasts all season, has limited him to one game more than James before his closing (although the gap should widen during the last two weeks of the season). Their numbers per minute and per possession are remarkably similar, with LeBron standing out significantly in the play categories (badists, badists per game, badist percentage), while Kawhi is far more effective in shooting and even in cases not fully released. since his form of injury, remains the much higher defensive player. All the rest being (relatively) equal, however, you imagine that Leonard, who provided the elite game when he is available to an elite team that has won 68% of the games in which he appeared, would have an advantage over a player on a team related to the lottery. (Even if, in all fairness, the Raptors at the crazy depth have won 78 percent of their games when Leonard is sitting.)

Blake Griffin, Pistons: The Detroit star ranks among the league's top six scoring, badisting, BPM and VORP strikers, and just behind the top six in RPM winning and winning actions, two stats that aim to credit individual players for their contribution to the success of the team. There is no doubt about the importance of Griffin for the success of the Pistons; they are 1-4 in the five games he missed and their offense scores eight points less for 100 possessions when he is on the bench. Perfectly healthy for the first time in five seasons, Griffin has become one of the most balanced and dangerous offensive players of the moment, comfortably defensively in the pole, face-up on the wings, lengthening the ground beyond beyond the 3-point arc, and working either as a screener or as a ball manipulator in pick-and-roll sets. He has not dunk as much as before, but he is better than he has ever been, and he has the Pistons on the point of playing only their second playoff run over the last decade.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs: Like Anthony Davis – which deserves to be considered one of the top six places according to various statistical measures, but whose examination ends quickly when you Check out the wider context of the NBA world – Aldridge poses the thorny question of whether he is actually a powerful forward thinking. According to match data by Basketball-Reference.com, he played 95% of his minutes in the center. according to the line up numbers to Glbad cleaningit's closer to 83%.

If he's qualified for the striker, as he was last year when he formed the second team, Aldridge will deserve a long time to help keep the Spurs afloat. during a season often tumultuous. With DeMar DeRozan, he was the key figure in the fifth ranked NBA offense, averaging 21.3 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.5 badists per game on 51.5% of the best career shots. . Aldridge remains the owner of the left block of the league: his 666 after-sales possessions are more than all five others the teams has used this season, and he is still one of the best scorers of the game on such games. As for the past 13 years, what Alridge lacks in style, he catches up with substance; Without him as a reliable source of buckets, San Antonio may not be headed for his 22nd consecutive playoff appearance.

Pascal Siakam, Raptors: We talked a lot about Siakam this season; when a player goes from "nice spinning room" to "potential superstar in the making", he tends to get your attention. He is the team's second-leading scorer with the second-best performance of the NBA – a team that he leads in minutes and a presence on which he has stabilized his presence with Leonard and Kyle Lowry. ;align. It is an upward offensive initiator and an advanced shooter (especially corners) that can credibly protect the five positions. Advanced statistics such as winning actions, RPM, BPM, VORP and PIPM all like. I would not bet on Siakam here; it's like the year before the year an escaped player is recognized. Some voters will argue the case, however. And it will not be half bad.

Danilo Gallinari, Clippers: Many people – including myself – thought that the Clippers had expressed their intention to give up the series race when they sent Tobias Harris to the Sixers. We were extremely wrong and, although we have a lot of merit, from Doc Rivers to Lou Williams, to Lawrence Frank's office, it's largely up to the 30-year-old Italian, who has the big most neglected seasons of the league. Gallinari is averaging 19.8 points and 6.2 rebounds on 46.3% shooting, all career highs, while drilling 43.4% of his 3 points and 90.5% of his free throws. He is a beast of Moreyball – Harden and Gallinari are the only two players with a rate of free throw attempts and points of 3 points north of 40%, and a real percentage of shooting equal to or greater than 0.6% – and Gallo gives only 8.6%. of his offensive games, one of the lowest rates of any player with a comparable rate of use. His contributions could continue to go unnoticed among voters who consider the clips more like a no depth monster than powered by an All-NBA caliber game, but if they end up with 50 wins and no. 5 seeds, a closer look could reveal how good Gallinari was.

Jimmy Butler, 76ers: With the exception of a 3-point shooting decline, Butler continued to produce at an elite level in Philly. The Sixers are 35-18 with Butler in the lineup and earned the points differential of a team of 58 wins with him on the ground and a team of 37 wins when he is absent, according to the game. Glbad cleaning. He did well in multiple advanced stats all-in-one and had several highlights as Philadelphia's match ended. The 29-year-old swingman probably dug a hole too deep for the Minnesota home to fire. Integration with the Sixers was tough, but he was not as good a defender as he was announced. But it had a definite impact on Philly's results and position in the standings, which might convince some voters to let the summer season pbad.

OK, so: Where does this leave us?

The LeBron case

Well, to begin with, you would have the right to say that James is just better than almost all the players I just mentioned, and that even in the context of the Lakers struggles throughout the season and all the other. time that he missed because of an injury – he had a better and more productive season than anyone except Giannis, PG and KD.

James averaged 27.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 8.3 badists per game, numbers that four other players in NBA history have reached in a full season. All those advanced numbers that I checked above? LeBron is in the top five among the attackers in almost all. The Lakers played 28-27 in 55 games at LeBron and are 7-15 without him; they outscored their opponents by 2.1 points for 100 possessions with him on the ground, and were outscored by 5.8 out of 100 points when he is not available. You might want James for very obviously not to give 100% defense, even before the injury, and not to be able to lead the team to the playoffs by itself. But you can still reasonably claim that LeBron, even at a less than normal pace, was one of the best half-dozen of the NBA's best forwarders when he was on the pitch.

In addition to this: Even if he misses the third of the season, he will not help his case, but do not unprecedented for a player to make All-NBA with a total so low. Not counting the 1998/99 and 2011/12 lockout seasons, one player earned a spot in the NBA category despite playing 55 times or less in 55 games. Not much has happened recently – only five of those 55 and under selections have arrived since 2000 – at This could encourage voters to stay with their instincts and give James a nod even in a disappointing season.

The case against LeBron

It all comes down to the record. In the five cases since 2000 in which a player has played 55 times or less and is still ranked All-NBA, each time the player was part of a team that has pbaded the .500 and has qualified for the playoffs: Chris Webber with the 2001-02 Sacramento Kings, Yao Ming on the 2006-07 and 2007-08 Houston Rockets, Dwyane Wade on the 2006-07 Miami Heat and Stephen Curry on the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.

Which is to say: In 82 NBA seasons, no player of this century played these few matches of such a bad team and still made the All-NBA. The last players to succeed: Bernard King in 1985, who led the LCM in goals for a terrible Knicks team before suffering a torn ACL at the end of the season, and Pete Maravich in 1978, averaging 27 points He was third in the league if he had played enough minutes to qualify) to get the New Orleans Jazz inside two games after qualifying. The Lakers sit nine games behind Oklahoma City, eighth seeded.

Thus, it would not be unprecedented for James to get a place despite so many missed matches and his team missing both the .500 mark and the playoffs. But this would be rare, and perhaps a difficult choice to justify, when there is such a deserving competition between players who played a lot more games and minutes, whose teams were much better than L.A., or both.

My hypothesis: LeBron lands in the third team alongside Griffin, right in front of Aldridge. The possibility that it is not, however, is real and it is stunning. Or at least that would be the case if this season had not yet brought LeBron and the rest of us with so much that we were not expecting.