Statistician predicts bad news for Arsenal at Premier League final table



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Manchester City should clinch the Premier League title this season, but only by goal difference.

This is after Five Thirty Eight – the invention of the world-renowned statistician, Nate Silver.

Silver has been named one of the 100 most influential people in the world after correctly predicting the 2008 and 2012 US election results – but his career is actually in sports statistics.

Aged 41, he became famous for developing a Performance Prediction and Career Development System for Major League Baseball stars before launching the Five Thirty Hight blog in 2008, which featured used to correctly call the next two elections.

His website has now produced a Premier League model and, after the last round of games, they have predicted the latest chart.

Man City is expected to finish 94 points in front of the Reds by goal difference.



Shkodran Mustafi from Arsenal reacts

Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea will form the top four without Arsenal and Manchester United.

The cities of Cardiff will join Fulham and Huddersfield to be relegated to the championship after finishing seven points behind Brighton.

The final predicted table:

Man City – 94 points (GD +72)

Liverpool – 94 points (GD +64)

Tottenham – 76 points

Chelsea – 74 points

Arsenal – 74 points

Man United – 71 points

Wolves – 55 points

Watford – 54 points

Leicester City – 53 points

Everton – 53 points

West Ham – 47 points

Crystal Palace – 45 points

Bournemouth – 44 points

Southampton – 42 points

Burnley – 41 points

Newcastle United – 41 points

Brighton and Hove Albion – 40 points

City of Cardiff – 33 points

Fulham – 23 points

Huddersfield Town – 17 points

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<p> <strong>How it works:</strong> </p>
<p>According to Gazette Live, Silver's sports modeling is cramming a torrent of numbers to produce a unique "football performance index" for each club.</p>
<p>These are derived from historical past performance data, individual player odds, based on Opta scores, attack and defense weightings, as well as a complex variety of other factors, including popular measure of "expected goals".</p>
<p>The model also takes into account the types of goals scored and cashed and attempts to quantify the "odds", the gap between the data showing that the team plays well but a result going against it. This SPI changes with each result.</p>
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