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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Sub-Saharan economies will face a tightening of global liquidity this year, and will grow faster than 2018, but at a low rate compared to soaring commodity prices ten years ago years, reveals a poll of Reuters.
As interest rates tighten in developed markets and trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies moderate, the wheels of the global economy should slow down – but not enough to put a brake on momentum of the region.
The survey, conducted last week, suggests that Nigeria will grow by 2.5% this year and Kenya by 5.7%.
Nigerian growth is expected to reach 2.7 percent this year in the latest survey three months ago, while Kenya was set at 5.8 percent. The West African nation grew by 1.81% in the third quarter and 6% in the last quarter.
A poll just a week ago showed that South Africa would record 1.5% growth this year, compared to 1.3% in 2017 and 0.7% in 2018, but far from the 5 % already registered more than ten years ago. . [ECILT/ZA]
"Despite a more tense global environment, we expect that growth recovery in sub-Saharan Africa will continue, thanks to improved prospects in Nigeria and South Africa, the largest economies in the region," he said. Razia Khan, head of research in Africa at Standard Chartered. in a note.
Nigeria and South Africa account for nearly 50% of sub-Saharan Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) in dollars and the World Bank expects 3.4% growth this year in the region.
All economists who responded to a supplementary question said growth in sub-Saharan Africa would exceed 3%.
"Much of the region will continue to benefit from a faster recovery in commodity prices as the oil economies find respite for rising oil prices," Khan said.
The Reuters poll last quarter revealed that the economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa would progress slowly this year, as the main drivers of the continent struggle to move up a gear. [ECILT/NG]
Khan wrote that she did not expect many African economies – excluding South Africa, although the financial markets are more liquid – to be affected by the first-order effects of the tensions. global trade.
Rates are expected to be relatively stable in the major economies of the continent. Medians have shown that they will stay at 14% in Nigeria and 9% in Kenya until at least the middle of next year.
Ghana is expected to cut 100 basis points to 16.00% early next year.
In contrast, the US Federal Reserve raised rates. However, it has reported fewer interest rate hikes over the next two years and has expressed caution about the US economic outlook.
Last week's poll showed that the South African Reserve Bank would leave interest rates at 6.75 percent on Thursday.
(Other articles from economic outlook surveys 🙂
Vote by Vuyani Ndaba and Vivek Mishra, edited by William Maclean
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