Sudan 2019: a difficult path to Sudanese democracy

AAfter several months of mbad protests, which began in December 2018 due to shortages of bread and fuel, the Sudanese finally succeeded in overthrowing their longtime dictator Omar Al-Bashir who was overthrown by the army. Since 1989, his uninterrupted decision is marked by the oppression of the black and non-Muslim population.

In July 2008, he was charged with genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes committed during the war in Darfur by the International Criminal Court based in The Hague.

Sudan was on the verge of civil war between protesters on one side and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the other side. Forces ordered by another war crimes suspect Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, a self-proclaimed general who has never served as a soldier nor received any military education. President Al-Bashir granted him his military rank in exchange for his services in Darfur, which he executed with extreme cruelty. RSF is made up of former members of the Janjaweed the militias that have committed the most brutal crimes and atrocities in Darfur since 2003, with at least 300,000 dead and three million civilians displaced.

During their mbadacre in Khartoum on June 3, 2019, shortly before the conclusion of the agreement between the ruling military council and the opposition, RSF killed 128 peaceful protesters. General Dagalo has established good relations with Saudi Arabia, where he is responsible for recruiting Sudanese mercenaries to fight alongside the Saudi coalition in Yemen. The Sudanese army has remained neutral in the current crisis and has thus proved its professionalism.

Doubts about the capacity of the transitional government

Aafter long and often interrupted discussions and following the intervention of the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, the Constitutional Charter was signed between the opposition coalition and the military council on August 17, 2019. The coalition entitled Forces of Freedom and Change unites the Sudanese professional badociation, the national consensus forces, the Sudanese appeal and Unionists (DUP).

The agreement should pave the way for the formation of a civilian government after nearly a century of military rule. Despite great optimism among the citizens, doubts remain as to the ability of the transitional government to limit the influence of the army and RSF on politics.

After the sacking of longtime president, Al-Bashir, an agreement was reached between the military council and the opposition on April 11, 2019. This is a new chapter of the bill. modern history of Sudan which has already experienced three civil wars: conflicts between the northern part of Sudan and the southern region of Sudan from 1955 to 1972 and from 1983 to 2005, and ethnic cleansing in Darfur and southern Sudan. Kordofan from 2011 to the present day.

So far, Sudan has avoided the Egyptian scenario

TThe process of transition to democracy involves challenges such as new domestic and foreign policy, economic reforms, the protection of rights and freedoms and a balanced foreign policy, which would allow Sudan to be removed from the blacklist and sanctions from the international community.

The transition process requires fair elections and a new constitution or a modified constitution. The democratic process would trigger political and economic reforms whose consequences would mainly affect the army and its interests. The recently agreed three-year and three-month period would be sufficient for a smooth transition. The opposition coalition and the army thus avoided radical changes overnight, as was the case in Egypt, where such rapid changes led to the coup of the military state in 2013. Sudan's experience in limiting the role of the military through cooperation rather than confrontation is important for the entire Arab world. world and for the Arab Spring.

After difficult negotiations, the opposition made the very difficult decision to appoint the Vice President of the Transitional Military Council, General Dagalo, accused of war crimes.

In accordance with the Constitutional Charter, the opposition coalition and the military council agreed that the Transitional Council would be the supreme organ of Sudan. The Council comprises 11 members (five from the army, five from the opposition coalition and one independent member). The government's training mandate has been entrusted to an experienced economist Abdullah Hamduk, who was deputy executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNEC) from 2011 to 2018.

Of course, not all the problems have been solved completely. In the opposition, strong factions have reservations about the deal, while some have not even joined the opposition coalition.

Four factors enabled Sudan to overcome the difficult phase of unrest and civil war with as few casualties as possible compared to events in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Algeria, where it is still unclear if the Algerian army take full control of the country as it did in Egypt or it will allow a democratic transition of power according to the Sudanese model.

Four positive factors

Four key factors contributed to the resolution of the situation in Sudan:

d & # 39; First: The Sudanese Patriotic Army refused to fire on protesters, except for its unit D. Despite conflict and mistrust between the army and the opposition coalition, they have pursued negotiations with a view to reaching an agreement and at least meeting the minimum expectations of the protesters.

SecondlyThe Sudanese opposition is made up of relatively powerful political parties with a long tradition, political maturity and wisdom. Their activists from civil society maintained the initial momentum. The demonstrations did not sink into anarchy. Therefore, the army and RSF have not repressed the uprising. During demonstrations and negotiations, the opposition coalition has been patient in resolving critical issues. They agreed on acceptable and realistic solutions to solve the country's serious economic and ethnic problems. They did not demand that the army be excluded from the political process and agreed to share power with it during the transition period. They avoided the mistakes made by opposition protesters in other Arab Spring countries.

Thirdly: Perhaps the most important factor was that the Sudanese opposition prevented the army from abusing the local and social vulnerability of minorities and tribes. Unlike previous civil wars in South Sudan, Darfur and elsewhere, they have worked to unite the entire nation in order to secure a better future for them and their future generations without discrimination.

FourthThe merit of the conclusion of the agreement rests largely with the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Ali, and his ongoing mediation activities within the Organization of African Unity (OAU). Prime Minister Ali and OAU have prevented the interference of some Arab countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and the funding of the military junta to carry out a coup d'etat. State, as was the case in Egypt, where they provided more than $ 12 billion to the democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi during a coup d'etat that took place on July 3, 2013.

Once the world's 17th fastest growing economy

SUdan, which was the largest African state until the independence of the Republic of South Sudan, is now the third largest country in Africa (after Algeria and the Democratic Republic of of Congo) with an area of ​​1,886,000 km2.

According to 2010 estimates, Sudan was the 17th largest economy in the world. Its rapid development, mainly based on high oil revenues (despite international sanctions), was mentioned and described in The New York Times 2006 article. After the separation, the Republic of Sudan lost 80% of its remaining oil fields to the territory of the Republic of Southern Sudan. As a landlocked country, South Sudan owes its oil exports to oil pipelines crossing Sudan's ports on the Red Sea coast. There is also a lack of oil processing facilities that have remained on the northern territory. In August 2012, Sudan and South Sudan signed an agreement on the transportation of oil from South Sudan via Sudanese pipelines to Port Sudan. Today, Sudan produces about 250,000 barrels of oil a day. Until the secession of South Sudan in 2011, Sudan's economy largely depended on oil exports.

Agriculture was Sudan's main source of income in the past, employing over 80% of the population and accounting for one third of the economic sector. The country has 16.9 million hectares of irrigated farmland. Sudan is the world's third largest producer of sesame after India and China, while cotton is its main export crop. The Nile is the main source of irrigation. The country has 643 km of coastline along the Red Sea. There are still untapped opportunities for fishing, coastal tourism and tourism in the three national parks.

The main factors impeding Sudan's economic growth in agriculture are the frequent droughts and instability due to the civil war.

Sudan has rich mineral resources, including asbestos, chromite, cobalt, copper, gold, granite, gypsum, iron, kaolin, lead, manganese, natural gas, nickel, oil, silver, tin, uranium and zinc.

The new Sudanese transitional government needs international support for reforms and economic development and to reschedule public debt to the IMF and other international lenders.

As far as domestic politics are concerned, the new government needs peace and consensus between ethnic groups and tribes. In addition to the Arabs, who make up 54% of the 36 million inhabitants of Sudan, there are 597 Arabized ethnic groups speaking more than 400 different languages ​​and dialects.

The Sudanese justice system is based on Islamic sharia. After the 2005 Naivasha Peace Agreement, which ended the civil war between northern and southern Sudan, Khartoum adopted several measures to protect non-Muslims. The use of Sharia law in Sudan is not in keeping with the tradition of the Sudanese people and modern times. Sudanese Muslims are divided between Salafism and Sufism. Therefore, the use of Shari'a that favors Salafists is not appropriate for Sufis and Darfurians who belong to Sufis.

Analysts believe that Sudan's foreign policy should stop supporting terrorism and begin to cooperate closely with the international criminal court to achieve the lifting of international sanctions. The Sudanese army should urgently withdraw its 10,000 soldiers from Yemen. The war in Yemen is illegal and illegitimate under international law and undermines the reputation of the Sudanese army.

Ljubljana / Khartoum, 14 September 2019