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Sudanese protesters greet a military armored vehicle during a demonstration in front of the army headquarters in Khartoum, while some ranks seem to be scrolling towards the rallies. By – (AFP)
Sudan's support for beleaguered President Omar al-Bashir appears to be running out of steam, with some ranks in the military, one of the mainstays of his three decades of power, seemingly turning to protesters, badysts say.
Thousands of protesters have camped in front of the military complex housing Bashir's official residence in Khartoum since Saturday, firing tear gas and deadly shots fired by the security services in defiance of the state of emergency banning all these manifestations.
But the Sudanese army, which has avoided intervening in clashes since the start of anti-government protests in December, has remained on the sidelines.
On Tuesday, protesters were seen lifting soldiers on their shoulders, dancing and singing with them. While others happily greeted the soldiers in armored vehicles, keeping a protective eye on the crowd.
"This is an obvious endorsement that is better understood as a co-optation of the protest movement," said Magdi El Gizouli, an badyst at Rift Valley Institute.
"The events of April 6 and 7 rehabilitated the moral status of the army and affirmed its political weight."
Protesters carrying banners calling on Bashir to withdraw urged the Armed Forces – a respected institution in the country – to protect them and support their request for the president's resignation.
On Monday, civilian groups leading the protest movement, including the Alliance for Freedom and Change, called on the military to hold talks on forming a transitional government.
On Tuesday, the police openly ordered his forces not to intervene against the protesters, hoping to find a way for a "peaceful transition" of power.
Possible takeover of the army
The implicit permission of the army for the protests to continue in front of a sensitive military site exposes dissatisfaction within the ranks of the army under the Bashir regime, according to badysts.
Sudanese soldiers attend a rally in front of the army headquarters. By – (AFP) "The army has always been the key to the ultimate success of the uprising – and there have been many signs of disaffection within the military – at least in the ranks of Brigadier General and lower ranks," said Eric Reeves, senior official at Harvard University.
"The lowest ranks have been condemned to kill Sudanese," he added.
Powerful bodies supporting Bashir, including the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), have been carrying out the deadly crackdown on protesters since December. But the army did not intervene.
The sustained protest movement has so far been the biggest threat to Bashir's 30-year reign, but has not yet convinced the 75-year-old president – one of the oldest to power in Africa – to give up the reins of power.
"The protest movement, although it has made considerable progress, has no central strategy going beyond the agitation," Gizouli said.
Indirectly, the groups that lead the protest movement actually called on the army to "play the role of midwife, to resolve the immediate crisis, to deposit Bashir and to deliver power to the people", a- he added.
And after?
"The question of how long the army will stay loyal to Bashir is an open question," said Murithi Mutiga of the international crisis group.
"Given the conflicting signals coming from senior army officers, Bashir may have to handle the transition now rather than later."
A wave of protesters chanted slogans in front of the Khartoum army headquarters and camped in front of the sensitive building for the fifth consecutive day despite the ban on such protests. By – (AFP) The United States, Britain and Norway issued a joint statement through their embbadies in Khartoum, calling on the Sudanese authorities to present a "credible" plan for a peaceful transition of power now.
But it remains to be determined whether such a transition would usher in the era of another military leader or civilian government, particularly if the protest movement fails to produce a viable alternative to Bashir.
Gizuli believes that Bashir, a brigade commander who led a bloodless state coup against the democratically elected government in 1989, could simply be replaced by another military leader with the support of the people.
Others say that it is more likely that a civilian government will be installed after Bashir.
The protests were initially triggered by the decision to triple the price of bread, in a country already struggling with soaring gasoline prices and a severe shortage of foreign currency.
"Nobody wants to" appropriate "the economic disaster that has hit Sudan," Reeves said.
"The current regime can not stand out and the military does not want to inherit the disaster."
The economy was particularly affected by the secession of South Sudan in 2011, which holds three quarters of Sudan's old oil wells.
"At least one civilian government put in power by the army would have room for maneuver from the overwhelming majority of Sudanese," Reeves said.
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