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Sitting outside their homes in Bamako, the capital of Mali, Amboungo Guindo and Bilal Ba discuss the merits of Russia’s involvement in their conflict-torn country.
“Your stories about the Russians are absurd,” Guindo told his friend. “How can they solve the problem with 1000” paramilitaries?
Ba replies: “They will come and they will do better than France”.
The conversation focuses on latent popular frustrations over France’s military involvement in the struggle of its former colony against an overwhelming Islamist insurgency.
Tensions had already mounted over French plans to reduce its military presence in the jihadist-ravaged Sahel – and over two coups d’état in Mali in just over a year.
Then a diplomatic row erupted last month after it emerged that Mali was considering hiring 1,000 paramilitaries from Russian private security firm Wagner.
The move is anathema to Paris, which first deployed an anti-jihadist force in the semi-arid region in 2013 and has lost 52 soldiers since. France has warned that any deal with Wagner would cast doubt on its deployment.
But in some quarters in Mali, criticism of the security arrangements in this West African country has been seen as an authoritarian attack on national sovereignty.
Tensions spilled over at the UN General Assembly last month when Malian Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maiga accused France of “kind of giving up on the run” over its military downsizing.
France vehemently dismissed the accusations, and an enraged President Emmanuel Macron later called the military-dominated Malian government “democratically nil.”
However, Maiga’s comments appear to have struck a chord in Mali. Malian news site Benbere hailed the prime minister as a “hero”, while other local media called France condescending.
“Frankly, going to the UN and telling that is no small feat,” Guindo said with a smile.
“Populist strategy”
In the absence of credible polls in a vast country where jihadists control entire swathes of territory, it is difficult to assess how most Malians perceive the diplomatic dusting.
Anti-French sentiment has long been rife on social media. There are also periodic protests against the French army, where protesters fly Russian flags.
France deployed troops to Mali after the jihadists took control of the north in 2012.
But their presence failed to stop the spiral of conflict, and it has since spread to central Mali as well as to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
By openly criticizing French policy, Malian leaders are pursuing a “populist strategy,” said Boubacar Haidara, a Bamako-based researcher.
He traces the change in tone until May, when strongman Colonel Assimi Goita strained already strained relations with France by orchestrating his second coup in a year.
Goita overthrew President-elect Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020, but then installed a civilian-led interim government under international pressure.
However, he overthrew the leaders of that government in May – in a second putsch – and was later declared interim president himself.
Macron then announced cuts to French troops in July.
Macron said at an Africa-France summit in Montpellier on Friday that he was closing bases because it was not “France’s job to stay in Mali over time.”
“France is only there to fight terrorism, not to support this or that regime,” he added.
Haidara said that pitting France against Russia “works very well” for him, especially since “the French intervention has not really improved the security situation”.
“Domestic scenes”
Mali’s combative stance appears to be less popular in conflict-ridden parts of the country.
“These colonels have promised to get to work, we just want them to do it,” said an activist from the northern city of Gao, who requested anonymity.
He added that Mali has no choice but to work with international partners, whether Russian or French. “Alone, it will be impossible,” he said.
Former Prime Minister Moussa Mara is also skeptical.
“There is a fever, it will subside. This will have created damage and mistrust,” he told AFP.
In an interview with AFP on Thursday, Prime Minister Maiga sought to play down the tensions.
“Mali and France are an old couple, sometimes there are domestic scenes,” he said, adding that he didn’t think there would be a divorce.
“There is no anti-French feeling. I say it loud and clear: too many things link Mali to France.”
The jihadists continued to stage attacks as leaders in Bamako and Paris exchanged beards.
On September 28, an attack on a mining convoy killed five gendarmes in western Mali, an area usually untouched by unrest in the north and center.
The danger is not lost for most of the inhabitants.
“As we speak, the jihadists are taking action,” Bilal Ba said, sitting outside his house.
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