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Tesla Inc. is expected to release its fourth quarter results after Wednesday’s bell, with all eyes on the Silicon Valley electric carmaker’s 2021 sales targets.
On a call in October to discuss Tesla’s third quarter results, an analyst estimated 2021 sales to be between 840,000 and 1 million vehicles, and chief executive Elon Musk replied that it would likely be “in this neighborhood. ”And that the analyst was“ not far ”. of.”
CFO Zach Kirkhorn then added that Tesla TSLA,
would provide official guidance for 2021 when releasing fourth quarter results, apparently preventing Musk from saying more.
Throughout the past year, despite plant closures and other pandemic-related issues, Tesla stuck to its 2020 sales forecast, and the company ended the year by a hair’s breadth, winning the praise of Wall Street.
Tesla announced earlier this month that it has produced more than half a million vehicles and delivered 499,550 in 2020. Deliveries are an approximation of Tesla’s sales. Before the start of the pandemic, the company set itself a target of delivering more than 500,000 vehicles per year.
Wall Street analysts expect delivery forecasts to be between 825,000 and 875,000 vehicles.
Here’s what to expect:
Earnings: The consensus of 37 Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet calls for GAAP earnings of 65 cents per share, which would be comparable to GAAP earnings of 12 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $ 1.04 per share, which would compare to adjusted earnings of 43 cents per share a year ago. Fourth-quarter earnings would be Tesla’s sixth consecutive quarterly GAAP and adjusted earnings.
Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that brings together estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buying analysts, fund managers, business executives, academics and others, expects adjusted earnings of $ 1. 02 USD per share.
Returned: Analysts polled by FactSet are forecasting sales of $ 10.53 billion for Tesla, up from $ 7.38 billion a year ago. Estimize sees $ 10.61 billion in revenue for the company.
Movement of stock: Tesla stock greeted 2021 in much the same way it ended 2020: scoring closing records and intraday records. Earlier this month, the title had its longest winning streak.
Tesla shares have risen 635% in the past 12 months, compared to gains of around 16% for the S&P 500 SPX index,
in the same period.
What else to expect: The annual results will provide the clearest picture to date of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the business.
In addition to the official sales forecast for 2021, Wall Street is looking for more reviews on the Model Y, the latest addition to the Tesla lineup, and on upcoming models, such as the Cybertruck and a cheaper vehicle that has only done so. allude to and that has been dubbed the “Model 2”.
JPMorgan analysts said on Friday they remained “very cautious” on Tesla due to its stock valuation, but raised their target for the stock price to $ 125 from $ 105, the lowest among analysts surveyed by FactSet.
“While still suggesting a major downside, we don’t consider our price target so ungenerous as it actually values Tesla as the world’s second-largest automaker in terms of market capitalization, behind Toyota and ahead of Volkswagen despite those automakers who each sell currently in the order of magnitude of 20 times more vehicles per year than Tesla, ”JPMorgan analysts, led by Ryan Brinkman, said in their memo.
RBC analysts, led by Joseph Spak, said in a recent memo that they expected Tesla to reiterate its recently increased 2021 investment outlook, which projects between $ 4.5 billion and $ 6 billion.
Tesla has historically issued guidance on free cash flow and GAAP net income, RBC analysts said, but could hold back beyond calling for “significant” improvement during the year.
Deutsche Bank analysts said they expected a “solid” quarter for Tesla, raising their delivery forecast to 825,000 vehicles from 800,000 “.
the continued strong sales of the Model 3 and the rapid ramp-up of the Model Y (made in China). ”
Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Emmanuel Rosner, also raised their price target on Tesla shares to $ 890 from $ 705 to $ 890, based on expectations of higher sales and earnings through 2021 and coming years.
On average, Tesla analysts polled by FactSet have a price target of $ 525 on Tesla, with 12 of 37 having a buy rating on the stock, 15 a sustaining rating and the remaining 10 a sell rating. The average of $ 525 represents a 37% drop from Friday prices.
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