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When you spend more than $ 1 billion a quarter, you need every penny you can get.
Tesla seems to want to return to the financial markets after CEO Elon Musk admitted at a teleconference last week that he "deserved the idea of raising capital at this point" . Adam Jonas, an badyst at Morgan Stanley, estimates that it could be $ 2.5 billion.
Tesla's actual needs will depend to a large extent on the ability of its model 3 to gain instant acceptance in the Chinese and European markets that it has experienced in the United States.
Success beyond the United States
The first figures give at least a reason to be optimistic. In Norway and Switzerland, two countries where government subsidies have narrowed the price gap between battery and conventional cars, the Model 3 began in March.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, spoke at a conference on the environment held in Oslo, Norway, in 2016. (HEIKO JUNGE / AFP / Getty Images)
According to Auto Schweiz, it was the best-selling car in Switzerland. It's the same thing in Norway, where the first month of sales of Model 3 was largely responsible for electric vehicles, accounting for nearly 60% of the total market in March. The numbers seem to corroborate claims that there is a strong demand for electric cars if the price is right.
If Tesla can replicate this on the most important European markets, it will cash well, not only because of the revenues generated by the sale of the vehicles themselves.
A CO2 credit
The European Union has an emission credit scheme for new and cleaner engine technologies, similar to a US system that has already paid Tesla hundreds of millions of dollars. The system allows companies whose cars emit more than the legal maximum carbon dioxide to "pool" with companies like Tesla, for credits that reduce their average emissions to the limit. Fiat Chrysler (FCA) was the first company to declare that it will join Tesla's "pool" last month.
Neither company has formally estimated how much money it hopes to change hands, but the scope of the EU regulation, which is actually starting to bite in 2020, suggests that it could be substantial. From 2020, the average CO2 emissions of vehicles registered in the EU must be less than 95 grams per kilometer. For each gram above this threshold, the manufacturer must pay a fine of 95 euros (105 dollars) per car sold. According to a study carried out by the Brussels NGO Transport & Environment last year, FCA – which sells fewer and fewer engine-powered FIAs every year and more energy-hungry Jeep SUVs – could be fined more than once. one billion euros in 2021 without the help of such systems. Honda and Hyundai may also need credit, according to the calculations of the author Florent Grelier.
The FCA said in an e-mail statement that it "is committed to reducing emissions from all our products. At the same time, we will optimize the compliance options offered by the regulations. "
"The purchasing pool provides the flexibility to deliver the products our customers are willing to buy while managing compliance with the lowest cost approach," he added.
The European market for electric vehicles
Tesla does not dominate the EV market in Europe as much as it does in the US, where it accounted for 75% of EVs sold in the first quarter. However, automotive badyst Mathias Schmidt still estimates he sold about 19,000 Model 3s during the period, almost as much as the next two best-selling combined models: Renault's Zoe and Leaf's Nissan. He also sold all Porsche and Alfa Romeo vehicles, he notes.
Some Tesla competitors are delaying the launch of their electric vehicles until 2020 to have the biggest impact on their fleet emissions that year. This gives Tesla a brief window of opportunity to claim its rights in Europe.
But there is no guarantee that it will succeed so far in the markets that really matter: Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy, which together with Norway and Switzerland have achieved nearly two-thirds European sales. In the UK, it has already lost a month of the second quarter: deliveries will only begin this week due to delays in sending the right-hand drive models needed.
More importantly, the Model 3 is significantly more expensive in Europe than in the United States, masked by the generous subsidies offered to electric vehicle buyers in Switzerland and Norway. Tesla's order page shows that, at current exchange rates, prices start at about $ 42,500 in Norway, but are close to $ 50,000 in Germany and even more expensive in Italy. In Europe, at least, this broadens the definition of the "mainstream" product. There, as often, Musk left little room for error.
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