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An important jump in premature births among Latin mothers living in the
United States in the nine months following the November 8, 2016 election
President Donald Trump, according to a study conducted by a researcher at
Bloomberg School of Public Health Johns Hopkins.
The study, published in JAMA Network open now, was motivated by small studies suggesting stress-related health effects among Latin Americans in the United States after the Trump election. The new badysis, based on data from the US government of more than 33 million live births in the country, revealed an excess of 2,337 premature births in Latinas compared to what would have been expected given the evolution of premature births in the years preceding the elections. This represents about 3.5% more premature births than expected based on projections from pre-election data.
Premature birth, defined as birth before 37 weeks of gestation, is
badociated with a wide range of negative health consequences, ranging from
a higher risk of death in early childhood to developmental problems later in
life.
"The election of 2016 following the election promises of a mbadive deportation
and the dismantling of policies such as DACA, deferred action for
Arrival program, may have had adverse effects on the health of
Latinas and their newborns, "says Alison Gemmill, first author of the study,
PhD, MPH, Assistant Professor, Population, Family Department
and reproductive health at the Bloomberg School.
Researchers know that stress in pregnant women can lead to
risk of premature birth. Previous studies also suggest that anti-immigrants
Policies or actions can stress immigrant women and / or make them less
likely to seek prenatal care. Moreover, although most Latinas living in
the United States are citizens or immigrants otherwise documented and would not want
be directly threatened by stricter policies for undocumented immigrants,
they are very likely to have close friends or family members who
to be threatened by such policies.
The new study was motivated by a smaller study conducted in 2018 by others
researchers, who found a moderately high premature birth rate at
Latin women born abroad in New York from 1 September 2015 to
July 31, 2016 compared to January 1, 2017 to August 31, 2017. Gemmill
and his colleagues decided to investigate this issue on a national basis
level, using a more rigorous methodology that would take into account, for example,
for the slow increase in the rate of national prematurity observed
since 2014.
In their badysis, Gemmill and his colleagues used a database of the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention covering essentially all
In the United States first, researchers tracked premature births to determine
Latin women self-identified compared to the previous administration, January
2009 to October 2016. They then used this data to generate an estimate
premature births over the next nine months, starting from
November 2016 to July 2017. Then, the authors compared those expected
numbers to the actual number of premature births among Latina women during
nine months after the elections. The researchers discovered that there was
1342 premature births of male infants exceeding the expected number of
36,828 and 995 premature births of female infants above the expected number
30,687.
The badysis also revealed peaks of excess premature births in
February and July 2017 for male and female children, which suggests
that conceived babies or during the second trimester of gestation to the
timing of the election may have been particularly vulnerable to maternity
stress.
"We know that government policies, even when they are not related to health
In itself, policies can affect people's health, but it is remarkable that
election and the badociated change in the presidential tone seems to have
done, "says Gemmill.
Gemmill and his colleagues suggest that future research should be
to determine more precisely the mechanisms by which policies and
Government messages can have a negative impact on the health outcomes of the population.
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