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With less than two days left, the campaigns for diverging visions for the future of the European Union are in full swing.
The 2019 European legislative elections are taking place in a climate of profound uncertainty about the stability of the Union and the direction of the European project.
Following the Brexit, EU support for the citizens of the 27 remaining countries has reached an unprecedented peak.
At the same time, the so-called Eurosceptic parties should realize the biggest gains.
Since the last European elections of 2014, immigration and anti-immigration have affected all corners of the EU and, according to research, concerns about immigration have decreased, as a result of sharp declines in the volume of conventional migration and refugee seeking asylum, the issue of immigration remains a priority on the political agenda of some European countries.
Eurosceptic nationalists accuse the EU of the increased influx of refugees in 2015. Federalists argue that only European cooperation can control migration.
The interrelated problems of economic growth and unemployment are high on the list of voters in the countries hardest hit by the socio-economic difficulties of the last five years, but they are a lower priority for the citizens of the better-off countries.
It seems that the only thing voters in all 28 countries can agree on is the need to tackle climate change. The issue has grown in voter opinion polls to become the most notable case of the 2019 elections.
With more than 200 natural disasters, global warming predictions in the range of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2100 and widespread information that the Earth is currently experiencing a sixth mbad extinction, 2018 has placed the climate degradation and ecological crises at the forefront of voter concerns.
In a European poll of EU voters, 43% of respondents agreed that "tackling climate change and protecting the environment" was an issue they wanted a priority to be. given during election campaigns. Among survey respondents who considered themselves "very likely" to vote in the next elections, the climate and ecological crisis emerged as the most important in Europe as a whole.
Experts predict that the Green political group will gain control of five seats in the European Parliament.
For the German ecologist party, the 2019 European elections could be a chance to create momentum that will result in the party reaching the critical mbad needed to be part of a coalition in the next German national elections.
"For the Greens, it is important to convert the good results of a poll into an electoral success," wrote Cerstin Gammelin in Suddeutsche Zeitung in May.
"The party has been on the rise for months, and a decent European outcome will strengthen it as it fights regional elections with the promise of coalition power."
The climate issue is a more important priority in Sweden than anywhere else, with 79% of Swedish respondents stressing it as a crucial issue for the 2019 elections.
This is also the main topic of German voters and the second most important for French voters.
In September 2018, 15-year-old Swedish student Greta Thunberg began not attending clbades on Friday to sit in front of government buildings, accusing her country of failing to follow the government. Paris Agreement on Climate.
Since then, young people from all over Europe went on strike at school on Friday to protest in the streets.
The Schools 4 Climate Action contributed to the creation of a global student protest movement aimed at getting world leaders to take action to combat climate change and, at the same time, sensitized many European voters to the issue .
"Climate problems have been around for a long time," said Nicklas Kallebring, an opinion badyst at the IPSOS international market research firm, in an interview with the Swedish newspaper DN, "but they have been lifted from there. last year by drought, fires and youth demonstrations. "
"The economy and growth" is the most quoted in Italy, according to the latest Eurobarometer survey.
As expected, the issue remains a major political priority for the countries that have experienced the greatest economic turbulence in recent years: Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Cyprus, Croatia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia and Latvia.
"Youth unemployment" is the main problem most often cited by voters in Spain and France.
In France, the far-right and far-right parties are campaigning for economic protectionism.
Alexandre Lemarie of the French newspaper Le Monde writes that the far-left party La France Insoumise supports the "solidarity protectionism" of the European Union and has even proposed a "kilometric tax on carbon". The more the product is shipped, the more it is taxed.
Other parties support the carbon tax at the European border, while the two most popular French parties, Macron's centrist liberal In March and the Republican Party (LR), support American-style protectionism that favors European and French and the award of public contracts.
While nationalism and right-wing populism have gained weight in European national politics, these ideologies and their supporters should influence the overall results of the European elections.
The Eurosceptic political groups in the European Parliament are expected to perform well in 2019, with the Europe of Freedoms and Direct Democracy (EFDD) and the Europe of Nations and Liberties (ENF) expected to win four and 25 respectively. seats.
Projected figures for the far-right EFF represent the highest gain for a political group, both in relative and absolute terms.
Mark Leonard, a seasoned EU observer and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said that "anti-European parties are gaining strength and could paralyze the EU".
A recent ECFR study predicts that such groups will succeed in this year's European elections, allowing them to "thwart activity, undermine the security and defense of Europe and," term, to sow discord that could destroy the EU eventually ".
What impact will this influence have on Europe as a whole? The success of the European elections could be used by European nationalists as a stepping stone for the success of national elections, says ECFR.
"Their biggest impact on the elections could be a wave of national elections in Denmark, Estonia and Slovakia this year, which could bring the nationalists to power as coalition partners, which would hinder the work. of the European Council. "
In Italy, a nationalist-populist coalition that took power on an anti-immigration platform after the Italian elections of last year.
One of the coalition parties, the right-wing party of the League, has formed an alliance for the next European elections with far-right parties in Germany, Denmark and Finland: Alternative for Germany ( AfD), the Finnish party and the Danish People's Party.
Each of the far-right parties campaigning in the European elections shares a hostile stance towards immigration.
Although the issue has become less important since the last European elections in 2014 and is still a downward priority compared to 2018, it was at the same level as the economy and growth, with 62% of Italian voters an electoral priority for them.
Some 50 million Britons will be able to vote on May 23, even though it is possible that the 73 legislators they elect do not have the chance to sit in the European Parliament.
The European elections in Britain are seen by many as a referendum on Brexit, an opportunity for voters to be heard on the issue as debate continues over how and when to leave.
The United Kingdom is legally bound to participate in the European elections unless it approves a withdrawal agreement by May 22, which is unlikely given that it stays less than 24 hours before this deadline.
Nigel Farage's all-new Brexit party was launched just two months ago, but he is leading opinion polls on the European elections at around 30% and above. The former party of Nigel Farage, UKIP, reportedly lobbied the British government for it to hold the Brexit referendum in 2016.
As Brexit is now scheduled for 31 October at the latest, some European badysts have called for a delay in appointments to Parliament, including the next President of the European Commission, to avoid questioning the legitimacy of the President. and the approval process.
According to the London-based think tank The United Kingdom in a changing Europe, if a candidate was approved or rejected with a small margin, the 73 MEPs could play a decisive role in determining the final result.
In the context of an endless Brexit, the feelings of the EU among the citizens of the 27 other EU countries have polarized.
While the departure of Britain has emboldened some Eurosceptic campaigns, the expected increase in the number of Eurosceptic parties' votes contrasts with a higher approval rate than ever before for the EU.
According to estimates, 61% of Europeans believe that their country 's membership of the EU is a good thing and 68% said they believe their country had benefited from membership in the EU. EU.
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