The FAA revises its forecast for the commercial UAV market and anticipates a three-fold increase by 2023

After an explosive increase in the number of commercial UAV registrations in 2018, the Federal Aviation Administration has revised its forecasts for the sector and now expects a size three times larger by 2023, according to NextGov.

According to NextGov, the FAA was caught off guard when commercial UAV operators recorded more than 175,000 drones in 2018, which shows that they "dramatically underestimated" the popularity of this technology. Although agency officials are still waiting for growth to gradually decline, NextGov said, the drone surge has forced them to review their numbers:

Last year, commercial UAV operators registered more than 175,000 new aircraft with the FAA, increasing the total number of commercial UAVs used in the United States by more than 170%, according to the airline's annual aerospace forecasts. administration. The upsurge in registrations, which brought the commercial drone market to 277,000 units, "far exceeds[ed]"The 44% of growth managers predicted at the beginning of the year.

… Last year, the administration had predicted the use of approximately 452,000 commercial UAVs by 2022, but it is now waiting for that to happen. industry reaches this size at the beginning of next year. According to the latest data, the FAA predicts that the commercial UAV market will triple over the next five years, reaching 835,000 aircraft by 2023.

NextGov added that a key factor seems to have been the progress made in "mainstream" UAVs at a cost of less than $ 10,000, making the commercial adoption of these units for purposes such as "Research, pilot training, filming, inspection of buildings and a host of other professional activities". more feasible. The number of recreational UAVs still estimated at 1.25 million is much higher than that of commercial UAVs, but it is not expected to increase as rapidly, with the FAA forecasting a use of 1.4 million UAVs. here 2023.

The FAA also predicted that UAVs would become increasingly useful for a variety of commercial purposes over the next few years, claiming that they would become "more efficient and operationally safer than the life of the aircraft." battery would lengthen and that integration would continue, new business models would begin to develop. " According to the report, it is "impossible" to predict with certainty what will be the demand for these services – say, parcel delivery by drone – that 835,000 are their best estimate, with between 603,000 and 1.29 million commercial drones possible at the lowest. and high ranges respectively.

Many companies have touted ways to take advantage of the drone market, including Amazon's patent for air warehouses, nightmare-like jellyfish machines delivering packages and drones that self-destruct before reaching the ground. to reduce the risk of decapitation. However, Amazon has been touting this idea for years without hinting that it would become a mbad reality (Google's parent company, Alphabet, seems to be a little closer), even with ground-based variants, such as Amazon Scout, likely to encounter impressive technical obstacles. . The FAA report shows that, with the brightest applications of aerial drones soon to be withdrawn from the market, more practical uses will continue to fuel market development.