The far right will find it difficult to unite despite the advances of the EU



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Between them, the various populist, Eurosceptic and right-wing parties won more than 150 seats, with the French parties Marine Le Pen and Italian Matteo Salvini getting the most important results in their respective countries.

If they acted together, the far right could position itself as the second or third force in Parliament, but for the moment they are a disparate group whose political lines are often contradictory.

This will deeply disappoint Le Pen and Salvini who have sucked – with Donald Trump's strategist, Steve Bannon – to an awakening of the far right in Europe.

However, given the recent history, it is unlikely that the far-right forces will consolidate to become a strike force within the Parliament during the next five-year term.

"The far right will not be large enough to block legislation … And considering their disunity, you will still need one of the big parties to get things done," said Pelle Christy Euraffex, a Brussels-based consulting company.

There is a clear problem between Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister whose ruling party, Fidesz, will lead 13 MEPs and would be a huge prize for the formation of a powerful group.

Salvini's success is largely based on the promise of ensuring that migrants arriving from northern Italy to Italy can quickly be sent to other EU Member States, a notion that categorically rejects Orban.

"No single party"

The political kaleidoscope that constitutes the right in Europe is full of such contradictions, as well as long quarrels that make potential alliances impossible or extremely unstable.

In 2014, Nigel Farage, of the Brexit party, rejected any badociation with French nationalists Marine Le Pen, condemning what he regards as the blind eye of his party to anti-Semitism.

Poland's ruling Eurosceptic ruling party, the PiS, also fled Le Pen because of its pro-Russian stance, while Orban also rejected his advances.

"I do not believe in a single far-right party," said Jean-Yves Camus, a specialist in political extremism at the Jean Jaurès Foundation in Paris.

"The lines are too divergent and (Le Pen) raises too much suspicion towards some partners," he said.

In an badyst's note, Steven Blockmans of the Center for European Policy Studies wrote: "It can be argued that too many diverging national interests, radically different economic and social policies, as well as diametrically opposed views on Russia, hinder the formation and maintenance of a coherent European parliamentary group on subjects other than anti-immigration ".

Another big question is what commitment the nationalists will make when making a decision once in front of the European Parliament, extremists with a reputation for making headlines, but with little follow-up.

Strasbourg observers widely agree that the interest of far-right MEPs in European politics is rather lukewarm, beyond rumors about issues such as Brexit immigration, where the real influence of Parliament is weak.

"The deputies of the National Front of Le Pen elected in 2014 have never blocked much, even though they were even more numerous.It is hardly a power of nuisance," said Sebastien Maillard of the Delors Institute.

This could keep Orban's Fidesz party in the political establishment's EPP group, the family of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, torn apart by the desire to maintain ties with the fire chief.

"Orban will do everything to stay in the EPP and stir up divisions within the group" where the Prime Minister's anti-migration rhetoric has his supporters, said political badyst Marc Lazar.

Given his huge national score, Orban "has absolutely no interest" in getting involved with Salvini and Le Pen, added Camus.

Ania Skrzypek of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies warned that despite a lack of legislative legislative power, the far right and the Eurosceptics remained the dominant force in parts of central and eastern Europe.

After generations behind the Iron Curtain, East Europe is once again exposed to the "risk of isolation" within the EU, she said.

The real question is how the far-right vote – and a more fragmented parliament – will influence the other institutions, particularly if Mr Salvini forces a hard-winger to join the commission, the executive body from the EU.

After the result of Sunday, which program will the next commission still want ?, she wondered.

bur-arp / dc / spm

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