The long-term Bitcoin price indicator becomes bearish, suggesting that the bottom is perhaps

A lagged indicator became bearish for the first time in four years, suggesting that the price of bitcoin would have bottomed out and a new uptrend could begin this year.

At press time, Bitcoin's 50-week moving average fell below the 100-week MA, confirming a bearish cross-the first since April 2015. However, bearish long-term crossovers have tendency to occur at the end of a major movement of ours, prices rising soon after, the AM being based on past data.

For example, the 50-week AM responds to price changes observed over the last 12 months, and the 100-week MA follows much older data. As a result, the bearish cross between the two is the product of an extended bear market – BTC increased from $ 20,000 to $ 3,122 in the 12 months to December 2018.

In simple terms, the bears need to put a lot of effort into pushing the 50-week MA under the 100-week MA. As a result, the bear market is generally exhausted at the time of confirming the move, which seems to be the case with BTC.

The main market capitalization cryptocurrency is currently trading at $ 3,749, an increase of more than 19% from the low of close to $ 3,100 observed 11 weeks ago. In addition, historic Bitcoin data show that the previous bear market ended with a 50-week MA falling below the 100-week MA in April 2015.

Weekly chart

As we saw above, the 50-week MA fell below the 100-week MA in April 2015, three months after the bear market stagnated to nearly $ 150.

Cryptocurrency spent the next five months consolidating in the $ 200- $ 300 range before breaking into a new bull market in October 2015. It is interesting to note that all this happened a year before bitcoin suffered its second mining award, halved in July 2016.

The third reward being halved in less than 12 months, the story seems to repeat itself.

The last bearish cross took place almost three months after the December 2017 sale, the peaks were nearly $ 3,100.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed the downtrend line, warning that the crossed bear could trap sellers on the wrong side of the market. In addition, the cryptocurrency is now turned north, after witnessing a high-volume bullish evasion last week.

It is therefore very likely that BTC will start a new uptrend later this year by violating the lower downside model, as shown by the downtrend from the December 2017 highs.

Disclosure: The author does not hold any cryptocurrency badets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View