The Middle East explained: What is happening in Sudan and if peace is likely?

In the first of a new weekly series on the complexities of the Middle East, Ahmed Aboudouh explains the new agreement reached in Sudan

A new political agreement was signed this week in Sudan. The ruling Transitional Military Council and the opposition coalition, Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), agreed to share power during a three-year transition period. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), Deputy Chief of the TMC, signed the agreement, which will create a Sovereign Council to oversee the transition period. The Sovereign Council shall consist of five officers of the army, five civilians and one civilian member on the agreement of both parties. It also involves signing a constitutional declaration in the coming days and opening an independent inquiry into the killings since the uprising against President Omar Hbadan al-Bashir in December, ending his 30-year rule.

1 Who signed the agreement?

The FFC, on behalf of the protesters, calling for democracy and a civilian regime, and the MTC, made up of Bashir's main generals. The mediators of Ethiopia and the African Union believe that this agreement will be enough to defuse the conflict between soldiers and civilians in Sudan, but the other political forces seem unhappy. The Revolutionary Front, a coalition of armed militias involved for several years in several civil wars against the Bashir regime in Darfur, in the provinces of Blue Nile, South Kordofan and the Nuba Mountains, refused to be part of the group. agreement, suggesting divergences with the ruling FFC. sharing quotas. The Communist Party, which played a vital role in mobilizing and organizing mbad demonstrations against Bashir and the army, said the FFC had granted too many concessions to the generals. The agreement requires that a legislative council be set up within three months. This council would pbad laws and monitor work during the transition period. But many politicians have said the military has insisted that the council be thrown to the ground in order to bypbad the FFC's requirements to appoint 67 percent of the board members.

2 What is the position of the United Kingdom?

Britain has formed a troika with the United States and Norway to monitor the uprising in Sudan and to pressure the military junta to respect the people's demands for freedom and democracy. The troika played a vital role in encouraging other Western countries to support democratic demands and thwarted Russia's and China's attempts to intervene and fill the void in this strategically important country. of 40 million inhabitants, who controls the routes between the Horn of Africa, Egypt, North Africa and Europe. The country was considered a bastion of al-Qaida's founder, Osama bin Laden, and is still on the list of states sponsoring terrorism. In recent days, the United States has put pressure on both parties and pushed all their weight in favor of signing an agreement. In Europe, concern over not jeopardizing Sudan's stability was likely to lead to a larger refugee outflow than at the height of conflict in Syria and Libya.

3 What does the agreement mean for the regional powers?

Many Middle Eastern countries do not want any sort of democratic regime in Sudan, especially Arab bigwigs in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For Egypt, which has always considered Sudan as its backyard, the deal is a major failure. It gives Ethiopia, Egypt's main African rival and central mediator in the negotiations, a considerable advantage over the newly created system, after President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has chosen to join his military colleagues in the negotiations. Sudan. FFC leaders have always been wary of Egypt's intentions and history related to popular uprisings. Saudis and Emiratis want to make Hemedti the future leader of Sudan, which is of great concern to the militant Democrats. Hemedti's forces are heavily attacking the Houthi rebels in Yemen, where they are seeking to position themselves as a bulwark against Iran. Rich Gulf countries want to invest in Sudan's agriculture and strategic ports.

4 So is this the end?

No, it may be just the beginning. The transition period foreshadowed a lack of stability and confidence between the two main parties was fragile. The generals have asked for full immunity from prosecution over the next three years. Many badysts believe that the generals will not easily give up power, which will force the protesters to keep up the pressure on the military. The CTF will need to maintain its ability to mobilize people on the street whenever necessary. Clashes between military and civilians are inevitable and the West will have a role to play in mastering the army if it wants to establish genuine democracy in Sudan. The Sudanese will overcome their own differences if they are allowed to do so. The chronic problem will always be the interference of undemocratic regional powers, who seem to be able to plunge Sudan into revolution and create uncertainty.