The oil rally should continue



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By Jim Hyerczyk – March 30, 2019 at 7:00 PM CST

Keihin Refinery

United States West Texas Intermediate and International Reference Brent crude futures reached a new high for the year this week. Markets are supported by OPEC-led production cuts and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, which have helped tighten global supply. However, Friday's rise is likely driven by increased demand for risky badets and stronger US Treasury yields, which eased concerns over the US recession later in the year. The catalyst behind the price action is the optimism created by the resumption of trade negotiations between the United States and China.

Strong performance in the first quarter

Crude oil is expected to record its strongest growth in the first quarter in 10 years. In addition, WTI futures are able to increase for a fourth consecutive week and should post a 31% gain in the first quarter. Brent futures are expected to post a 27% gain for the first quarter.

CNBC said: "For both futures contracts, the first quarter of 2019 is the best quarter since the second quarter of 2009, while both had gained about 40%."

Trump weakly tries to stop the rally

The strong gains this quarter may have prompted President Trump to ask OPEC to boost production in order to lower prices on Thursday.

"It is very important that OPEC increase the flow of oil. Global markets are fragile, with the price of oil becoming too high. Thank you! "Trump wrote in an article on Twitter.

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