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The Oklahoma City Thunder is convinced they have what it takes to get the best of what the Western Conference has to offer. But it seems they will have to prove it much sooner than they would have liked.
After a 116-107 defeat against the Miami Heat on Monday – a win in which OKC had no superstar playmaker Russell Westbrook, who was serving an automatic suspension of a match for committing his 16th technical foul of the season Saturday – the Thunder now sits at 42-29, in sixth place in the west. They lost three times in a row and are 5 to 9 since the All-Star break, tied with the Pelicans for the league's sixth league record. And things are not about to become easier for Billy Donovan's club: in a turning point we knew to come, the last 11 matches of the OKC include a round-robin match with the Raptors as well as Clashes against the Pacers, Nuggets, Pistons and Rockets and an end-of-season road trip to Milwaukee.
There are more friendly games on the slate – thank heaven for the wounded who walk GrizzliesMavs diving and the deterioration of the Lakers – but overall, Oklahoma City will face the second toughest program in the West. Combine that with the continuous overpressure of the Clippers, Spurs and Jazz and suddenly the Thunder finds itself slipping on the table at the worst time. According to the Inpredictable victory probability settings, the probability that Oklahoma City clinches the seventh or eighth seeded, which means a date of the first round with the Warriors team that has them smoked (without the old friend Kevin Durant) on Saturday, or a team of Nuggets against whom they "smoked". No win in three tries this season – is now over 60%.
Perhaps the best version of the Thunder, including the most useful player caliber, Paul George, Russell Westbrook possessing both the magic of chaos and a jumper, the greasing giant, Steven Adams, and a defense of the world. elite consisting of super-athletes with long arms, can hay trade with the clbad of the conference. But we have not seen much of this version of the Thunder since the break of the match of the stars.
Oklahoma City has remained solid in getting stops, placing 10th in points per possession since the All Star break. But it's a retreat from the elite form that the team had already posted when it ranked as the NBA's third best defense – the kind of skid a team built on its ability to put pressure on adverse faults that she simply can not bear.
Some recent OKC issues in defense have been concentrated. "Just not disciplined," Adams told reporters after Monday's loss to Miami, the question of how Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and his company had managed to accumulate 60 points. Thunder puts opponents at risk more often; only the Grizzlies have a higher free throw rate since the break of the match of the stars. They force fewer errors, ranging from no. 1 in the league in the rotation rate of the opponent outside the top 10 in the last 14 games.
They have also been significantly less effective in returning to transition. The Thunder ranks 19th on the last month in points allocated per possession after the other team secures a defensive rebound. Before the break of the stars, they placed second in the league. Allowing opponents to go to races after a miss becomes an even bigger problem when you miss, like, a ton of shots.
Oklahoma City is the last in the league in offensive efficiency since the break of the star game, according to Glbad cleaning, which removes lost items and end-of-quarter uprisings. No team had the worst percentage of real goals since mid-February; the Thunder ranks in the basement or close by finishing at the edge, mid-range and beyond the 3-point arc.
George, the best shooter of the Thunder and his best shooter, has only shot 37.8% on the field and 31.5% on a distance of 3 points in his last 11 games while he has a hard time. right shoulder. Dennis Schröder (35.4% of the floor, 26.3% of long distance calls) and swingman Terrance Ferguson (37.2% and 28.8%, respectively) also experienced serious difficulties. It's reductive, but it's true: if you can not shoot, you're in trouble.
Oklahoma City may be the best player in the league, Oklahoma City could get out, but now the same problems that led to his bumpy start come back to bite them. If neither George nor OKC's secondary firing targets can systematically turn a blind eye, the Thunder offensive can become terribly ugly and terribly fast.
On the bright side, we've seen thunder improve all of this. Only a few months ago, Oklahoma City started playing 11-1, while PG and Russ led the show, while everyone else was involved in scoring and defensive work. They absolutely can Come back to this level and, as Adams said on Monday, much of their current problem is "fixable". It's just that there are a lot of things to fix, and that there is not much time left to do it.
"It will happen," George told reporters after Saturday's loss to the Warriors. "It will happen. We will not press it. We are good here. Just keep hitting on it, and it will turn for us. "
If this is not the case, another disappointing post-season outing and a new set of embarrbading questions about the competitive viability of a Russ-and-PG core could be considered.
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