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Utah overcame the toughest program of any Pac-12 South football team to win the division title of the school last season. Among the questions that will arise in 2019: if the Utes play in another match of the Pac-12 championship and win this victory, would they have any hope to advance to the playoffs?
Numerous variables would come into this discussion, including the Utes issue and how their BYU, Northern Illinois and Idaho State's non-conference schedule influenced the judging panel's judgment.
Utah also plays against Oregon and California instead of Stanford and Oregon during the regular Pac-12 season, which could be another limiting factor. The Utes' schedule "will be a problem as they sneak into the playoff conversation," according to Pac-12 expert Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News.
A set of odds in Las Vegas gives Utah a chance out of two to win the national title, on a score of 75/1, tied for the 17th best odds. Oregon is 40/1 and Washington and USC are 50/1. BYU and Utah State are 1000/1.
If the Utes win their first Pac-12 championship but fail to rank in the top four of the CFP, the consolation of 2019 will be another season that will feature a traditional Rose Bowl: Pac-12 vs. Big Ten. The semi-finals of the CFP are reserved for Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowls.
Utah beat both teams that will be missed in 2019.
Utah will not see Oregon and Stanford in the Pac-12's rotation. Based on the projected strength of Northern opponents, UCLA is the only Southern team to play a more favorable league schedule, with the exception of Oregon and Washington. The Bruins have a tough, non-conference race in Cincinnati, San Diego and Oklahoma.
AND AFTER?
Upcoming dates for Utah football:
Wednesday – NCAA signature date in February.
March 4 – Spring practice begins.
March 8-17 – Spring break.
March 19 – The practice of spring resumes.
April 13 – Game red-white, 11am
Utah will likely be the consensus favorite to re-issue as a divisional champion, although no team has won a consecutive Southern title since UCLA in 2011-12 (USC not eligible in November 2011). Utah is also expected to be in the top 25 AP preseason for the first time this decade, raising public awareness and raising expectations.
Assuming that Utah will not be undefeated, as no Pac-12 expansion team has done so, the Utes would likely be compared to another team 12-1 located elsewhere. Washington made the semifinals of the CFP in 2016 with a 12-1 record and a no-conference win over Rutgers, Idaho and the Portland State. The Utah program is not necessarily a eliminatory factor.
Of course, the Utes must win these games without conference so that this discussion continues. Then they would need to lose only once, and against the right team, during the regular Pac-12 season – like Washington, during a competitive match in Seattle. And they should beat a high-profile team such as Oregon in the conference league match.
The first checkpoint among all these opportunities will occur on August 31, when Oregon will meet Auburn in Arlington, Texas. Two days after Utah played against BYU in Provo, a win for the Ducks would go a long way to restoring the credibility of the Pac-12. That would also mean a lot for a Pac-12 team that beats Oregon, including any opponent from Utah.
If the Utes beat BYU for the series for the ninth time in a row, they would also need the Cougar to have a good season, but only with chosen wins. That would not help Utah if the Cougars beat the USC or the Washington of the Pac-12. BYU's victories over Tennessee, South Florida, Utah State and Boise State would also be beneficial for Utah.
Strokes and misses
Opponents that the Pac-12 football teams will jump in 2019:
South
Arizona – State of Washington, California.
State of Arizona – Stanford, Washington.
Colorado – State of Oregon, California.
UCLA – Oregon, Washington.
USC – State of Oregon, Washington State.
Utah – Stanford, Oregon.
North
California – Colorado, Arizona.
Oregon – Utah, UCLA.
State of Oregon – USC, Colorado.
Stanford – State of Arizona, Utah.
Washington – UCLA, State of Arizona.
Washington State – Arizona, USC.
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