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In recent months, the news has been saturated with headlines claiming that we are experiencing a "deadly flu season". Researchers looking at laboratory data use the term "flunami".
The data suggest that it is a serious year for the flu, with a higher number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths than recorded at the same time in previous years. But there is more in the story.
The increased number of influenza tests and the very early onset of the influenza season resulted in these high numbers. In the meantime, we saw increased awareness and concern from the community as the media continued to report high rates of influenza.
Read more:
It's a bad year for the flu, but it's too early to say that it's the worst of all history – 5 charts for the 2019 season so far.
Increased concern leads to increased testing
Unfortunately, the flu causes deaths every year, including in infants and healthy young people. This remains a surprise for many. The media coverage of these deaths presents human stories that make the risk real and threatening.
We can see the impact of this by looking at trends in Google's research on "flu deaths" and "flu symptoms" in Australia this year. The sharp increase is closely linked to media reports about deaths in early May.
The interest of Google's search for deaths in 2019 is lower than that of 2017, when media reports of deaths from influenza appeared more sporadically.
Fear of a severe and dangerous flu season leads more people to visit their GP or emergency room for badessment if they have flu-like symptoms. In turn, this could also cause more doctors to seek the flu, which would lead to an increase in the number of influenza cases.
Every Monday morning in the winter, our Flutracking survey questions about 45,000 Australians about their flu-like symptoms (fever and cough). We also ask sick Flutrackers if their doctor has tested them for the flu.
Every year, more and more Flutrackers answer yes. The comparison of the percentage of flutrackers with cough and fever reporting having been tested for influenza in April and May was significantly higher than in 2016, with a very significant increase in 2019.
The season is more advanced, but not more severe
Since at least 2011, influenza activity has increased from summer to autumn. This trend has been particularly marked this year.
Systems like Flutracking have higher levels of influenza-like illness for this time of year, but the numbers are not nearly as high as the typical August-to-September peak of the last five years.
Flutracking is not perfect, it only follows "flu-like" symptoms. Influenza surveillance relies on several imperfect data flows; each contributes to our understanding of the situation as a whole.
New South Wales death registration data is another system that provides objective information on the severity of influenza. It showed some non-seasonal peaks in February and March, but is also low and is about half the rate observed in the middle of a typical influenza season.
Read more:
The 2019 influenza vaccine is not perfect – but it remains our best defense against the flu
Hospitalization rates for influenza are high in many hospitals for this time of year, and some might approach the winter peaks observed in 2017. However, if one gets there Based on the proportion of patients admitted to the hospital with influenza requiring intensive care, there is no indication that the influenza season has started. is more deadly than usual.
The easiest way to describe the season is early, but average to the present. Influenza rates are high for this time of year, but the disease is no worse than the typical peak we see in winter.
The comparison between 2019 and 2018, a very lenient year, still exaggerates the difference.
So when will it end?
In describing the season as "early", the question arises as to how long it will last. Nobody knows. Influenza season dynamics are a mixture of particular strains circulating, immunity of the population underlying circulating strains of previous infections or vaccinations, population density levels and interactions, and weather conditions, highly unpredictable factors.
If there is no change in circulating strains, it is possible that the number of vulnerable people in the community is exhausted and that the influenza season "is exhausting". Otherwise, it could be a big year for the flu.
Note that this is a general overview of a large country. Western Australia seems to be experiencing a different experience this year with very high rates of laboratory notifications and influenza-related hospitalizations. After experiencing a series of mild influenza seasons, the pool of people likely to be infected with the flu can now be much larger.
Read more:
Children are more vulnerable to the flu – here's what to watch for this winter
How bad should you be worried?
Until now, the season is early but average. This is not the worst flu season ever recorded and it is not a "flunami".
Is the media hyperbolic about the nature of each flu season? Some do not see any disadvantage in using the media's interest as an opportunity to inform the public about the flu or to promote research.
At the same time, it is dangerous to badociate reasonable public health councils with unreliable interpretations of what is really happening. Crying wolf can undermine confidence in public health messages.
Let's hope that the messages on the flu remain clear. You do not want to catch the flu, and if you catch it, you do not want to pbad it on to other people. Vaccination, hand hygiene, antiviral treatments and staying home in case of illness can all help.
Read more:
Have you noticed that the flu season in Australia seems to be getting worse? here's why
If you want to help Flutracking keep up with the flu near you, you can sign up for Flutracking.net.
Sandra Carlson, Senior Analyst at Flutracking, contributed to this article.
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