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I went to Alberta to talk about the broader themes of his book, and especially what Trump's rise tells us about the current state of the GOP – and the direction that's going on. 39 it could take once it's gone. Our conversation, conducted by email and slightly modified for fluidity, is presented below.
Cillizza: Paul Ryan talked a lot about Trump in your book. But he never made these criticisms as a speaker. Did he explain why not to you?
Alberta: In his way, yes. His explanation boils down to the notion that President Trump is erratic, unstable and devoid of any intelligence toward the government – and that without a competent person around him to help steer the ship, he might sink. Ryan was well aware that the Republican Party – and its own reputation – would suffer from being silent in the face of some of the President's indignities. But he was convinced that the biggest risk was for the country itself. He believed that for as bad as things are, they would have been even worse if there had not been people like him and John Kelly and James Mattis biting their tongues to preserve their influence on Trump that they used in turn "(guard) the railings to drive the car in the middle of the road, and do not let the car go into the ditch."
Cillizza: How many current members of the GOP were willing to talk to you about the Trump album? And how many did you ask?
Alberta: Hmmm. A rough estimate – I asked about 50 to speak on the record, and of these, probably half of them.
Cillizza: Do the GOPers – elected officials, former elected officials, staff members – feel that the Trump era is an anomaly within the party or a new normality?
Alberta: I would divide this into two questions (sorry!) Because there is an important distinction to make.
First question: Do Republican officials believe that the populist appeal of Trump is sustainable?
Absolutely. The establishment of the GOP was ridiculously mocked in the years following Reagan, essentially ignoring the fate of working-clbad Americans and addressing business and the ruling clbad. Trump has stated that, and although his policy has often betrayed his rhetoric, he was cautious in identifying the resentment that so many blue-collar conservatives had towards the GOP elite. Republicans will keep these lessons in mind long after Trump 's departure, whether as part of trade agreements, immigration or the maintenance of global order.
Second question: Do Republican leaders believe that Trump-style economic nationalism (and its obvious appeals to nativism and prejudice) is a sustainable political model? Absolutely not. One of the Shakespearean ironies of the last decade of Republican politics is the fact that Reince Priebus, as party president, commissioned an "autopsy" after the 2012 elections, explicitly making it clear that Republicans could no longer count on the overwhelming support of white voters. win the presidential elections. Trump did not refute this theory in 2016; he simply delayed the inevitable.
America is undergoing a radical demographic transformation that is accelerating day by day. The Hispanic population has tripled in Arizona over the last three decades. In Harris County, Texas – anchored in Houston and representative of the rapidly expanding population of the state – Mitt Romney and Barack Obama were tied in 2012; in 2018, Ted Cruz lost Harris County by 200,000 votes. In Georgia, where Republicans narrowly escaped defeat in the 2018 governor's race, Democrats are optimistic about making the blue state in the near future for a simple reason: the share of the White population has dropped 16 points since 1984.
All this to say: the demographic writing is on the wall for the Republican Party. Even though states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania remain in the Republican column – and remember, Trump won all three votes by a total of 77,744 votes – the GOP's electoral calculation will be impracticable if he loses his choking on Arizona or Georgia, or certainly Texas. Because of this simple reality and the death or adaptation of political parties, you can expect the Republican Party to correct itself in matters of race relations and identity politics. The only question is how many shots they will have to suffer in the first place at the ballot box.
Cillizza: Trump has already imposed on Paul Ryan because of the content of your book. Is there anyone else who will be on his target list when the book comes out?
Alberta: Probably. There are many characters in the book who once were fervent critics of the president, who were just sneaking into his inner circle. He knows some of their evolutions; of others, not so much. Trump is deeply aware of the opportunism and duplicity at work in the GOP of today; you do not turn away a part and do not remake it to your image without the support of former enemies.
Cillizza: Finish this sentence: "In a decade, the Republican Party will return to the Trump presidency and reflect on ___________." Now, explains.
"In a decade, the Republican Party will return to Trump's presidency and ask," How the hell did this happen? "
And with a bit of luck, they'll get a copy of "American Carnage". Because, very seriously, it is for this reason that I wrote the book – not to capture the plot of Trump's chaotic regime palace, nor to ignite the gossip scene in Washington with insane quotes (it's a bonus). I wrote it for Americans returning to this period in 10, 20 or 50 years to have a contextualized, three-dimensional view of the cultural and political dynamics of the early 21st century that prompted Donald's political rise. Trump.
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