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At approximately 3:25 pm ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury stock price, which moves in the opposite direction of price, was less than approximately 2.361 percent, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield was also below 2.8082%.
At the end of last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell below that of 3-month bonds for the first time since 2007. This is an evolution that investors call a reverse yield curve and which is considered an early indicator of a recession.
According to Reuters data, the US Treasury yield curve has reversed before each recession in the past 50 years and has only issued a false signal once during this period.
A recent example is the reversal of the US Treasury yield curve at the end of 2005, 2006 and 2007, before the US stock markets collapsed. The curve is also reversed at the end of 2018.
As for the data, the latest weekly figures for UI claims and a third reading of fourth quarter GDP will be released at approximately 8:30 am ET.
Home sales pending for February and the Kansas City Fed's survey data for March will follow later in the session.
Market players are also likely to closely monitor the speeches of US central bank decision-makers. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed Chairman Raphael Bostic, New York Fed Chairman John Williams, and Fed Vice President for Supervision Randal Quarles, are ready to comment on the world's largest economy at separate events on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury is expected to auction $ 50 billion in four-week bills, $ 35 billion in eight-week bills and $ 32 billion in seven-year bills.
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