Trump: the debacle of the closure leaves the president with difficult choices

And especially for the President, a real deal with the Democrats would require concessions that would force him to do something he would never have dared to do: risk angering his ultra-loyal political base.

The unpleasant reality that is currently facing Trump and the unchanged political dynamics that caused the market to shut down explain why Washington seems to be heading for a second – or Trump attempt to bypbad Congress using executive power to build the wall that could create a constitutional conflict. fire storm.

The president's dilemmas will arise during a three-week short-term funding truce reached on Friday to end a shutdown that left 800,000 government employees without several paychecks on schedule and lined up. infrastructure of the country in chaos.

Negotiations will be held between a group of Republicans and Democrats from the House and Senate to seek a border security plan that everyone can approve.

"Personally, I think it's less than 50-50, but you have a lot of very good members of this board," he said, adding that he doubted that he would dilute his request for $ 5.7 billion in funding.

"Fair Deal" or new judgment

Trump warned Friday that he was not getting a "fair deal" on money for a wall that the Democrats vehemently opposed before February 15, the government would close again or invoke emergency powers to build it.

Trump's refusal, up to now, to moderate his position does not take into account the damage done to his political position in a closure that now looks like a serious miscalculation.

The stalemate worsened the moderate voters and detracted from the polls, as did the united and emboldened Democrats. Trump's descent threatened him with his base army, for whom his wall is an almost mystical rallying cause.

A second stop could turn into an even bigger disaster for Trump.

On the one hand, Capitol Hill Republicans who were frustrated with his strategy over the past month might think twice before following the president in another political stalemate.

"I do not know how a member of the administration or Congress might think that a closure is a commendable pursuit. This is never the case," said Sen. Susan Collins, R -Maine, at the CBS show "Face the Nation".

And Pelosi, punctured in his victory, seems even less willing to offer Trump the kind of Congressional compromise that could allow him to say that he has had money for the wall and that Democrats have claimed that they had financed border security.

"Have not I been cleared on a wall?" the President asked on Friday.

Trump in a political traffic jam

Signs that the parties are as grounded as ever explain the growing expectations of the president's willingness to declare a national emergency or take any action to reprogram money to fund the wall when the time is up.

But what would be a certain legal battle and a limit to the amount of funds that the president could use, means that such a strategy could save the political face and unify its base, but should not lead to the rapid construction of 39, a wall that could boost his reelection for 2020 race.

This political stalemate is the reason why the president is now at a crossroads that could fundamentally change the character of his presidency and change the foundation of a political crusade based on the rhetoric of immigration on burnt earth.

The past few weeks have clearly shown that Democrats at the head of the House of Representatives would give nothing to Trump who resembles his vision of the campaign of a border wall without getting anything serious in return.

They would probably require Trump to offer something of a permanent protection dimension for undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children and even on the road to citizenship for a group called Dreamers.

Trump offered a temporary shield to DACA beneficiaries and other migrants covered by temporary protection status (TPS) for three years in an effort to break the stalemate in government negotiations.

But Democrats refused, saying that temporary protections against deportation in exchange for a permanent wall were hardly a good deal.

Even this limited offer has drawn the fury of some of Trump's traditional cheerleaders to the right. Putting permanent status on the table of undocumented migrants could provoke a firestorm among supporters who see such an approach as an "amnesty".

The change of balance of power in Washington put Trump in a deeply ironic position that, to win the wall, he may have to do something he has never done before: risk his connection with its base.

Could the White House become big?

Florida Senator Marco Rubio – while stressing the need to guarantee border security first – thinks that the White House could be ready to go much further than most people think, while Trump seeks to keep his election promise.

"I think he's ready to go one step further and do something reasonable with people who have been here illegally for a long time, but who are not criminals," Rubio told Jake Tapper in "L & State of the Union "of CNN.

Rubio, more than most lawmakers, understands the perilous journey that Trump would face – since his own presidential outlook has been eviscerated by his past willingness to compromise on the issue.

Trump often hesitated to trade the protection of the DACA for money to build his wall, worried about the reaction of his base, even as the Democrats were willing to spend $ 25 billion for border security that He could have used to finance the wall. .

For a long time, Trump, who has ties to his political base that is unlike any other recent president, refuses to test the limits of this loyalty. After all, although media personalities like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and Mark Levin have a huge audience, no one has ever electrified the conservative populist and nationalist movement like Trump.

And if a Republican president had the political credibility to lead the base to a compromise on immigration, it would be Trump.

But the president rarely tried to touch voters beyond his own coalition – apparently thinking that he could repeat his narrow path to the 270 electoral votes that once again challenged all the experts in 2020.