Trump's best selling point for his reelection in 2020 seems stronger than ever

legend

President Donald Trump

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Asahi Shimbun / Getty Images

• President Donald Trump has made the strength of the economy a
  key element of its re-election strategy for 2020.
• Trump had more ammo for this argument with the
  first quarter GDP figures higher than expected Friday.
• GDP was 3.2% for the first quarter, much more than
  the 2.3% expected by economists.
• Voters are also generally supportive of Trump's manipulation
  of the economy.
• So the strong numbers help to build Trump's best argument for
  2020.
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The report on GDP released on Friday was not just good news for the United States
the economy is also a good sign for President Donald Trump while he
focuses on his reelection in 2020.

Department of Commerce
first quarter GDP reached 3.2%, well above 2.3%
that economists were waiting for.

There are a handful of reasons why the
a high number of GDP can be temporary, growth came after
early concerns that the first quarter growth was going to be
catastrophic.

In early March, at some point, the Atlanta
The Fed's GDP tracker estimated that first quarter GDP was on
follow to finish below 0.5%. But instead, we have the strongest
impression of the first quarter since 2015.

Read more:

GDP growth shattered expectations early in 2019. But
Economists say the recovery will probably not last.

Trump has made the strong economy one of the central themes of his
pitch to voters, and Friday's GDP figure provided the
President another opportunity to talk about the resilience of the United States.

"The GDP is an incredible number, but remember this: Not only
that we have great growth – that's growth. We have big
and a very, very low inflation, "Trump told reporters.
"Our economy is doing well, number one in the world, we are
number one economy right now in the world and it's not even
To close."

And the argument seems to resonate voters. While
Trump's approval rate is still low, polls show a majority
of Americans approves of its management of the economy and
many voters give Trump's policies a heavy sum of credit
for the economic strength of the country.

While the link between economic performance and elections has
in recent years, the health of the US economy has
generally a good predictor for the elections. And the ability to
update on wage increases and high GDP figures is a strong case
for Trump to bring to the voters. In reality,
some predictive models give Trump a chance to escape to
reelection, mainly based on the rise of the economy.

Democrats are also very aware of the boost that Trump could get
of the economy. Many in the party, including the former president
Barack Obama, have
argued that Trump simply benefits reforms made
during Obama's time after the financial crisis.

But defending this cause may not be as convincing as Trump's message.
Celina Lake, a leading Democratic strategist,
says Politico that the economic message of the president is a lot
stronger than the Democrats at the beginning of 2020
cycle.

"We will tend to talk about things like paid holidays and
equal pay – and these things are all very popular policies ", Lake
I said. "But they do not correspond to an economic message that is
robust enough to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump, who
speaks of a very robust economic policy ".

This does not mean that the economy could not slow down. In reality

many economists are waiting for the boost of the GOP-led and
The tax cuts supported by Trump will begin to fade in the last part of
the year and the possibility of economically detrimental trade
the war still persists.

But so far, US GDP has exceeded expectations and with strong
labor market, rising wages and consumer confidence,
there is a good chance that Trump will benefit from a
strong economy at the time of the 2020 elections.