Trump's favorite parts in the US economy are also the weakest

Washington (AFP) – At rallies and road shows, President Donald Trump proclaims a revival of American factories rebuilding the country with "American steel", the "American heart" and the "American hands".

But in reality, despite its relentless use of punitive tariffs to help distort US business opportunities, the industries it has tried to help have become the weakest links in an otherwise strong economy.

Just over a year from his reelection, Trump boasts of the most vigorous economy in the industrialized world, its expansion entering its eleventh year and its historically low unemployment rate.

But while office services and jobs dominate the US economy, Trump continues to promote the jobs in the factories and extractive industries that have been the cornerstone of the economy of the last century.

"US mills are coming back to life," he said last month in Florida. On the same day, US Steel announced the closure of its Michigan and Indiana mills until "market conditions improve".

And to the people of the west of the Virginians, he said, "The coal industry is back."

But in reality, each of the sectors Trump has championed – coal mining, steel, aluminum manufacturing and auto manufacturing – has been shaken by a combination of market forces and ever-changing technologies – factors independent of his will – or damaged by the very things he has suffered. to protect them, say economists and badysts.

Last month, a national survey of manufacturing activity reached its lowest level in almost three years – hardly avoiding a contraction – while regional surveys also recorded record declines.

In March, the number of manufacturing workers in the United States fell for the first time in almost two years and is now growing more slowly than the rest of the US labor force.

"There is clearly an element of hyperbole in the president's speech," said Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, which supported Trump's applied tariffs on steel imports. , aluminum and China.

But he adds, "I think it's also fair to say that many Americans wanted to see a president fight for US industry."

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Trump has imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of imports, renegotiated trade agreements and left the threat of a worsening of the situation in China, Europe and Mexico, while publicly reproach to shut down US factories or relocate production.

But weak foreign demand, the strength of the US dollar and the abandonment of domestic manufacturing for decades have gradually reduced the US industrial sector, said Gregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

Trump's global trade war did not help either.

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"Protectionist policies have damaged the sectors they were supposed to protect, and we can not escape them," Daco told AFP.

To boost the coal industry, the president has lowered regulations on climate and pollution. Last month, he ordered the energy department to spend millions of dollars on research to improve the performance of coal-fired power plants.

But coal is in crisis.

According to the Department of Energy, more and more electricity companies have opted for cheaper energies than wind, solar and natural gas, coal consumption has dropped to its lowest level. low for 40 years. Bankruptcies have been numerous, closing dozens of mines, reducing production capacity and leaving hundreds of workers inactive.

This month, a company ended its activities without warning workers.

And while primary aluminum production in the United States has increased, benefiting from Trump's 10% tariff imposed worldwide last year, the number of US foundry workers has actually declined of 1% since the entry into office of the latter, according to the Ministry of Labor.

In Wall Street, share prices of Century Aluminum and Alcoa Corp, the leading US producers, have fallen more than 50% over the past year.

Prices have dipped since last year, largely because of excess supply from China, said Tom Leary, vice president of Harbor Aluminum in Texas, adding that market premiums increased with tariffs, which means that products manufactured in the United States are often not cheaper than imports.

"A 10% rate is not enough," Leary added.

Elsewhere, as automakers spend billions of dollars developing new technologies for autonomous and electric vehicles, they are abandoning the factories that made the sedans and compact cars that Americans no longer wanted to buy.

And as a result, the sector has laid off workers at the fastest pace since the Great Recession, according to the job company Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Charles Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said Trump's Twitter bomb had forced carmakers to think twice before relocating their production.

In a burst on Twitter on Friday, Trump once again introduced pricing as "a great bargaining tool, a great revenue generator and, most importantly, a powerful way to bring businesses to the US and bring businesses that have left us for others RETURN HOME. "

But its threat of imposing 25% tariffs on auto imports would significantly disrupt US auto manufacturing in a way that is still difficult to quantify.

"I would say that the president remains the biggest threat to the industry," Chesbrough told AFP.