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Turkey and Qatar risk losing their geopolitical influence due to unrest in Libya and Sudan, while their regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are expanding their own field of action, have announced badysts.
Doha, longtime ally of deposed Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, silently observed the developments in Khartoum as a result of the eviction of the veteran leader on April 11th.
Talks between Sudanese military leaders and protesters over the transition to a civilian regime remain in stalemate.
Bashir, who came to power following a 1989 Islamist-backed coup, had long been counting on foreign aid from Qatar, a country rich in energy, which – alongside from Turkey – supports Islamist groups, mainly the Muslim Brotherhood.
"Doha lost its influence in Sudan with the revolution," said AFP Andreas Krieg, a professor at King's College London.
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chairman of Sudan's new military council, "has closer ties with Abu Dhabi than Doha," said Krieg.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have expressed their support for the transitional council, while continuing to isolate Qatar for its alleged support of "terrorists" and for seeking closer ties with Iran, its rival .
Sudan is part of a military coalition led by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia that fights Iranian-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen.
Krieg said that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi "are trying to consolidate their personal relationship" with Burhan and "consolidate long-term control" in the country.
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, vice president of the Sudanese military council, met in Saudi Arabia on Thursday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to the official Saudi news agency.
"There is a struggle for power and influence in Sudan between supporters of the Qatar-Turkey camp and those who are willing to join the Saudi-UAE camp," said Mathieu Guidere, a professor at the University of Western Sudan. University of Paris and specialist in Arab politics. .
& # 39; Battlefield & # 39;
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates each deposited 250 million dollars (223 million euros) with the Sudanese Central Bank as part of a program to help $ 3 billion following the departure of Bashir.
The two oil-rich countries are opposed to any form of popular uprising in the region likely to lead the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, which they oppose vehemently – as was the case in Libya in 2011 after the overthrow of dictator Moamer Gaddafi.
Doha's support for the Muslim Brotherhood – which Saudi Arabia and its allies have blacklisted as a "terrorist" organization – is one of the reasons for the ongoing diplomatic conflict with Qatar.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt broke off their ties with Doha in June 2017 following accusations of supporting "terrorists". Qatar denies the allegations.
For the leaders of the protest movement in Sudan, none of the regional camps should play a role in the country.
"The political change has been made by the Sudanese people and has nothing to do with any other country," an AFP spokesman who requested anonymity told AFP.
"We are really concerned about the intervention of the Gulf countries because they are trying to use our country as a battlefield.
"We want a balanced relationship with regional and other countries."
The main protest movement – camped outside the army's headquarters in Khartoum – has brought together a large number of factions, including secular parties, and some are keen to break with Sharia law.
& # 39; Diplomatic Opening & # 39;
Another regional struggle against power is taking place in Libya, where Doha may also lose its influence.
While Qatar and Turkey support the internationally recognized national agreement government (GNA), Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates support strongman Khalifa Haftar and his so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) .
The United Arab Emirates and Egypt are accused of militarily supporting Haftar, who is conducting an offensive against the UN-recognized government in Tripoli by the United Nations. Haftar, meanwhile, accused Turkey and Qatar of providing arms to his rivals.
Fighting between the two sides has left at least 510 dead, according to the World Health Organization.
Between six and ten countries intervene permanently in the problem of Libya, carrying weapons, money and military advice to the country, warned Wednesday the UN envoy, Ghbadan Salame. .
For Karim Bitar, expert at the French Institute of International and Strategic Affairs, Sudan and Libya "have become fields of confrontation between rival powers of the Gulf".
The regional camps are "engaged in a military struggle in Libya" and "economic and financial" in Sudan, he said.
Guidere said the Doha influence in these two countries had allowed the country to "open up diplomatically" and try to counter the isolation imposed by its former allies.
But the commitment of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Libya and Sudan could actually "reduce the influence of Qatar and further aggravate its isolation," said Guidere.
According to Bitar, those who have the most to lose remain the countries in which these geopolitical rivalries manifest themselves, as the "proxy wars between Qatar and Saudi Arabia will only prolong and aggravate" the crises.
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