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Since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, Turkey has been in talks with the group’s leaders. Ankara is seeking to play a central role in the Taliban’s new Afghanistan, but voices warn that Turkey risks overplaying its hand.
As the Taliban celebrated with gunfire, as the last refuge in NATO’s twenty-year Afghan presence ended with the last US plane taking off from Kabul International Airport, its leaders were already reaching out to Ankara .
Taliban turn to Ankara
Although Turkey is part of NATO’s Afghan military presence, the Taliban are looking to Ankara to help reopen and manage Kabul International Airport, badly damaged by NATO’s rush to leave the country. As a result, Ankara believes it occupies a unique position in its relationship with the group.
“Well, sure, he considers himself a Muslim country and the only Muslim country in NATO. He has an advantage when he talks to the Taliban,” said retired Turkish Ambassador Selim Kuneralp.
“But the Taliban don’t seem to see it the same way,” Kuneralp added. “They said yes, Turkey is a valuable partner as a Muslim country etc. But they are still not ready to see a renewed military presence.”
Ankara says talks with the Taliban remain deadlocked over its demand that the Turkish military should secure the airport rather than Islamist extremists.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusolgu said earlier this month; security is the key to the reopening of Kabul International Airport.
“In my opinion, the Taliban or Afghan forces could provide security outside the airport,” Cavusoglu said.
“But inside there should be a security company trusted by the international community or any other company. Even if the airlines, including Turkish Airlines, wish to fly there, the insurance companies do not. will not allow it, ”added the Turkish Foreign Minister.
But Cavusoglu, recognizing the importance of reopening the airport, said talks will continue with the Taliban.
Kabul Airport is seen as the key to European countries and the United States evacuating citizens still trapped in Afghanistan and Afghans who worked for NATO, Western embassies and NGOs. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas last month stressed the importance of Turkey’s reopening of the airport.
In August talks with his Turkish counterpart, Maas even offered to share the cost of the airport with Ankara.
Turkey – Taliban Agreement
Turkey could still strike a deal with the Taliban, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan considering a diplomatic opportunity.
“Erdogan hopes that the situation in Afghanistan and the need to have some kind of engagement with the Taliban will provide some kind of political leverage, benefit Turkey,” predicted Asli Aydintasbas, senior researcher at the European Council. “He wants to be the vehicle for dialogue, for NATO and for Western dialogue with the Taliban.”
The large Turkish construction industry – already present in Afghanistan – could also benefit under the Taliban. In a recent interview with a Turkish newspaper, a Taliban official said Turkey could play a key role in rebuilding the country, which could be funded by Turkey’s close ally, energy-rich Qatar.
But could Ankara play too much with its growing aspirations in Afghanistan?
“The neighbors of Afghanistan – that is, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran – all major countries, activist countries have great influence with incursions into Afghanistan.” , explains Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.
“Turkey, on its own because it has historic relations with Afghanistan, can it be a broker or a manager of developments? I really have doubts about that,” Ozel added.
But Erdogan has close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. And the two countries are cooperating in other regional hot spots, including Syria and the Caucasus. Zaur Gasimov, an expert on Russian-Turkish affairs at the University of Bonn, believes that Afghanistan could be another point of cooperation.
“This would forge and activate a dialogue between Ankara and Moscow on security matters, bringing the two countries closer together. Afghanistan would become a new chapter of a book that already has several chapters like Syria, Karabakh, etc. “said Gasimov.
Erdogan is due to visit Moscow soon. NATO has already expressed concern over Turkey’s deepening ties with Russia. But analysts say Erdogan could calculate he has leeway and create a role for his country as the new Afghan rulers forge a relationship with the rest of the world.
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