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There are twice as many COVID hospital patients in two regions as there were when the virus peaked in April 2020 – with a third region on track for its own number to double as well.
Information from the government’s coronavirus dashboard shows that the number of people hospitalized with coronavirus in the east of England and the south-east is already double the number in the first wave of April 2020.
According to the figures, there are currently 4,303 people hospitalized with the virus in eastern England, up from 1,621 at the peak in April 2020.
In the southeast, there are currently 5,487 COVID patients in hospitals, up from an April peak of 2,347.
The Southwest is also set to become the third region where the number is double the height of the first wave, with 2,129 COVID patients currently hospitalized against 1,080 at the April high.
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The numbers come amid suggestions that infection levels are leveling off in parts of England, with the growth rate slowing across the country.
Epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson said he believes the current wave of the epidemic may be under control in some areas.
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His suggestion was echoed by a study by researchers at the University of Cambridge, who said the number of COVID infections in England as a whole was declining and the virus’s ‘R-rate’ – the number of people to whom an infected person transmitted the virus on average – could be as low as 0.6 in parts of England.
An R-value less than one means that the overall size of the epidemic is decreasing.
The Medical Research Council’s (MRC) Biostatistics Unit’s COVID-19 working group estimates the current daily number of new infections occurring in England is 60,200 and said the rate of R has fallen below one in areas such as East England, London, South East, West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber.
However, despite the apparent stabilization in infection rates, leading scientists have warned that the number of coronavirus deaths will continue to rise for several weeks.
Earlier in the week, the government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said that “we are in a period of high mortality” which will not “diminish quickly”.
His comments came after government data showed there were 1,564 deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive test on Wednesday, the highest figure reported in a single day since the start of the pandemic.
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The government has urged people not to put further pressure on the NHS amid concerns that hospitals are struggling to cope with the influx of patients due to COVID.
Last week, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, declared a “major incident” in the capital due to the increase in cases of the coronavirus threatening to overwhelm hospitals.
City hall said rising infection rates “put immense pressure on an already stretched NHS”, with the number of people on mechanical ventilators up 42% – from 640 to 908 – in the week to January 6 .
Earlier this week, Health Secretary Matt Hancock pleaded with people to follow coronavirus restrictions, saying the NHS was under “significant pressure” after the number of coronavirus patients in hospitals in England hit a record high of over 32,000.
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