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Britain faces the prospect of thousands of annual Covid deaths for years to come, scientists have warned.
They say waves of cases are likely to sweep the country each winter as Covid-19 joins other seasonal viruses, including the flu, wreaking havoc among the elderly and infirm. Each year, as the cold forces people to stay indoors, the transmission of the virus will increase, the number of cases will increase and some of them will result in deaths.
The warning comes as the number of Covid cases appears likely to stabilize over the summer, but researchers say the incidence could rise again in the fall as vaccination rates weaken and more schools will come back. This could lead to a fourth wave this winter – one that could become an annual event for years to come.
“We are going to see problems with Covid for a long time,” said Professor Adam Finn of the University of Bristol. “The virus was genetically more agile than expected, but not as much as the influenza virus. So I would consider Covid to be a lingering problem for some time, with the annual death toll reaching thousands and possibly tens of thousands. “
This view was supported by Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute in Oxford. “We will no longer see Covid-19 spreading like wildfire. There will be enough collective immunity in the population to make sure they never do it again like this.
“But not everything will be beautiful dory. We’re going to have flu-like waves of illness, I think. And they will kill. The problem is: how much? It’s hard to assess, but if you look at the current deaths from Covid, they are happening at around 100 per day.
“So a wave that kills a few thousand people seems a reasonable measure of what you might expect in a future winter wave. And then you could have a bad wave a year and have tens of thousands of deaths. “
However, Professor Jonathan Ball of the University of Nottingham said: ‘I suspect the number of Covid deaths will decline over time as the population’s immunity to the disease increases but also widens. That doesn’t mean we won’t have deaths every year. But to say that it is likely to be in the thousands is too pessimistic.
“It could be to begin with, but I think the number of serious illnesses will decrease over time due to continued exposure to the virus, which will therefore boost natural immunity.”
Most of those who die are likely to be the elderly and seriously ill – the same group of people who succumb each winter to the flu and other respiratory illnesses. It remains to be seen whether Covid-19 will increase the average number of deaths or simply act as a new addition to the roster of diseases that kill vulnerable people every year.
“Covid is not going to be something that is going to cripple society,” Finn added. “And we can minimize the problems that this poses – through the prudent use of vaccines, for example. “
A similar warning was voiced by Professor Martin Hibberd of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “I think we may be at a turning point for Covid-19 in the UK, with the proportion of people with antibodies now exceeding 90%. This means that we will soon be in the best possible position with vaccine protection – and yet we still see disease.
“That’s what we’re going to have to live with: a new nasty disease that will continue to cause problems. I think we can use the flu as an example here. We have flu shots and yet we still have perhaps an average of 20,000 deaths a year in the UK. “
The prospect of the next wave of Covid starting in the fall, as schools return and the weather deteriorates, has led scientists to push for the introduction of booster vaccines for people over 50. and for 16 and 17 year olds be considered for vaccination.
There are also fears that previous lockdowns have weakened the immunity of the British population against other respiratory illnesses such as the flu. These concerns were highlighted last month by the Academy of Medical Sciences in its report Covid-19: Preparing for the Future.
“We’re going to start this winter and start mixing again in a way we didn’t do last year,” said Dame Anne Johnson, president of the academy. “Under these circumstances, we can expect a real surge in respiratory infections such as influenza, to which we may have waning immunity because we were not exposed to them last year.”
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