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(Adds details about the debt)
By Omar Mohammed
NAIROBI, April 8 (Reuters) – The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 2.8 percent from 3.3 percent, the bank said on Monday.
The drop in commodity prices in 2015 put an end to a decade of rapid growth for the region, and the bank is expected to wait longer before recovering, a drop in industrial production and a trade dispute between China and the United States. United States having adverse consequences.
According to the bank's forecast for 2019, economic growth will be lower than that of the population for the fourth year in a row and will remain stuck below the 3% mark, which was reduced to 2015.
In its latest report on the regional economy, the bank also reduced its growth estimate for 2018 to 2.3% from the 2.7% forecast last October for last year.
"Slower than expected overall growth reflects persistent global uncertainty, but stems more and more from domestic macroeconomic instability, including poorly managed debt, inflation and price stability. deficits, "said the bank.
Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, which account for about 60 percent of sub-Saharan Africa's annual economic output, have all faced various challenges, limiting their contribution to growth, the bank said.
"This downward revision reflects the slowdown in growth in Nigeria and Angola, due to the challenges of the oil sector, and the moderate growth of investment in South Africa, due to weak business confidence" , did he declare.
The Nigerian economy grew at an estimated 1.9 percent last year, compared to 0.8 percent the year before, the World Bank said, reflecting a modest recovery in the non-oil sector.
South Africa emerged from the recession in the third quarter of last year but investors remain cautious because of policy uncertainty, the bank said.
Meanwhile, Angola, the region's third-largest economy, has been stuck in recession, with oil production remaining weak.
High inflation and high indebtedness have discouraged investors in economies such as Zambia and Liberia, undermining their growth prospects, the World Bank said.
The region's debt ratios are rising and the type of borrowing by countries exposes them to vulnerabilities, he said.
"External debt is shifting from traditional, concessional and publicly guaranteed sources of financing to more private, market-based and more expensive sources of financing, putting countries at risk," the bank said.
"By the end of 2018, almost half of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa covered by the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries were at high risk of debt distress or debt, more than double the debt burden. of the number recorded in 2013. "
Economies that do not depend on commodities such as Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire, have continued to grow strongly, the bank said in its report.
Albert Zeufack, the bank's chief economist for Africa, said the region could boost annual growth by about two percentage points if it exploited the technology more efficiently. ;information.
"This is a game changer for Africa," he said. (Edited by Duncan Miriri and Hugh Lawson)
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