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The US Congress will almost certainly block any future trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardizes peace in Northern Ireland, warned congressional leaders and diplomats.
Boris Johnson has presented a trade deal with the United States as a way to offset the economic costs of the exit of the EU. Donald Trump promised the two countries to conclude "a very substantial trade agreement" that would increase trade "four or five times".
Trump, however, would not be able to pbad an agreement through a hostile Congress, during which the bipartisan opposition to any trade deal with the UK would be strong in case of a threat to the agreement of Good Friday of 1998 and for the open border between Northern Ireland. and the republic.
Comments came as Johnson was in Northern Ireland to revive the power-sharing talks between his allies of the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin, as well as discuss preparations for Brexit.
Johnson's coming to power and his demand to drop the EU's backdrop, designed to preserve the opening of the border after Brexit, have strengthened Congress' resolve to take a stand in favor of the EU. historic agreement to which the United States is
"The American dimension of the Good Friday agreement is indispensable," said Richard Neal, co-chair of the 54-member group of Friends of Ireland in Congress, and chair of the powerful Ways and Means Committee. of the House, empowered to organize a trade agreement indefinitely.
"We oversee all trade agreements as part of our tax jurisdiction," said Neal, a member of the Democratic Congress of Mbadachusetts, during a phone interview. He pointed out that such a complex trade deal could take four or five years even without the issue of Northern Ireland.
"I would have little enthusiasm in the idea of concluding a bilateral trade agreement with the UK, as they were jeopardizing the deal."
What is the original "backstop" in the withdrawal agreement?
Described differently as an insurance policy or a safety net, the backstop is a feature of the Withdrawal Agreement intended to ensure that there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Ireland, although no formal agreement can be reached on trade and security. security provisions.
This would mean that if there was no feasible agreement on such issues, Northern Ireland would remain in the customs union and a large part of the single market, guaranteeing a border without friction with the Republic. This would keep the agreement of Good Friday intact.
The United Kingdom and the European Union both adhered to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the original Brexit agreement, but disagreements have arisen over how which would work.
The DUP is opposed to it because it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the United Kingdom, thus creating a customs divide in the Irish Sea, which is anathema to the Unionist party.
Tory's hard-headed Eurosceptics also oppose it, as they see it as a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU Customs Union permanently if the United Kingdom and the European Union could not sign a free trade agreement. This would prevent the country from concluding its own free trade agreements with third countries.
What was added to May's withdrawal agreement?
Common interpretative instrument
In January 2019, Theresa May received a legal supplement to the withdrawal agreement to try to get it to the British Parliament. It gives the force of law to a letter of Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, presidents of the commission and the council. This indicated the EU's intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so that it is not triggered or, as the case may be, exit as quickly as possible.
United Kingdom unilateral declaration
This exposed the British position that, if the backstop became permanent and the discussions on an alternative did not lead to anything, the United Kingdom believed that it would be able to get out of the deal.
Additional language in the political declaration
This underlines the urgency felt by both parties to negotiate an alternative to the backstop and to clarify what would be a technological solution. However, he failed to convince the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that, even if it "reduces the risk" that the United Kingdom is trapped indefinitely in a safety net, it does not do not delete it.
What happens next?
During their campaign to become Prime Minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, both parties in the Conservative leadership, seem to have declared Northern Ireland's support "dead" and promised to put it on the table. 39, deviation from any agreement negotiated with the EU. The EU has repeatedly said that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement for renegotiation.
Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker
Pete King, the Republican co-chair of the Friends of Ireland group, said the threat of abandoning the safety net and endangering the open border constituted "unnecessary provocation," adding that his party would have no qualms about challenging Trump on this issue.
"I think anyone who believes strongly in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement on the opening of the border would certainly be willing to oppose the President," he said. said King.
In the event of a tough Brexit, in the absence of guarantees for agreement on Northern Ireland, the strength of sentiment among Irish people of American descent – a tenth of the population, many in rotating states – could be a problem in the presidential election next year. congressional elections.
Johnson refused to meet European leaders until the safety net was scrapped. Leo Varadkar of Ireland told Johnson that the safety net could not be removed from the UK withdrawal agreement.
After a controversial phone call between the two leaders, a spokesman for Varadkar said the alternatives to the backstop, as a way to guarantee the North-Irish peace agreement, "have not yet been identified and demonstrated ".
In the past eight months, Congress has delayed the ratification of a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, the USMCA, presented by Trump as an extraordinary achievement (though it differs little of his predecessor, Nafta). Representative King said that a trade agreement with the UK would face even bigger hurdles.
"First and foremost, trade agreements are always difficult," said the New York Republican during a phone interview. "There are many other issues related to work and the environment that are raised. But having a solid block on a particular issue would make it very difficult to pbad it to Congress unless the boundary issue is resolved. "
House Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom had "no chance of succeeding" in Congress. Over the weekend, a committee made up of former congressional and foreign policy officials said that "all of the Irish America will support the president from start to finish".
The ad hoc committee on the protection of the agreement on Good Friday, set up earlier this year, wrote Sunday to the new British Secretary for Northern Ireland, Julian Smith, to express concerns about the statements of Johnson on the abandonment of the reserve.
A European diplomat in Washington predicted that the US-Irish caucus would be decisive for reaching an agreement. "I think there is enough meat in the US-Irish lobby to stop a trade deal with the UK if the Good Friday deal is affected," said the diplomat.
The Embbady of Ireland is pushing for the defense of the 1998 peace agreement. Ambbadador Daniel Mulhall said he was pushing an open door.
"There is a real wave of opinion within Irish America in favor of the agreement on Good Friday and against anything that might be perceived as going against this. agreement, "said Mulhall.
"Wherever I go, wherever I speak to the Irish-American public, the first question is still about Brexit," the ambbadador added. "And they still reflect a deep concern about Brexit."
"Politically, we have a good caucus here. It's active … They see in the Good Friday agreement and all that comes with it an accomplishment for Irish America … and they hate to see it compromised in the context of Brexit. "
Amanda Sloat, former head of the State Department and now Brexit expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said: "Trade agreements are still difficult to ratify in Congress … There will be significant resistance, as the 39, said President Pelosi, to ratify a trade agreement. this is considered to be detrimental to the agreement on Good Friday or to the interests of the people of Northern Ireland. "
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