Venezuelan crisis: despite setbacks, Venezuelan opposition is wary of the US intervention

Caracas, Venezuela – In a country in ruins grappling with hunger and repression, Pasqual Paulino felt a wave of hope when opposition leader Juan Guaidó launched his defiant attempt to take part in a military uprising. against President Nicolás Maduro.

Even in his disappointment after his failure, he sees something that could further aggravate a bad situation.

US military intervention.

"We do not want one," said the 18-year-old law student at an anti-Maduro protest Thursday. "Do more sanctions. Apply more diplomatic pressure. And we thank you for what you did. But do not send your military. This would trigger a civil war and only divide Venezuelans. If we know anything, it is especially that now we must remain united. "

While the White House and the Pentagon discuss the relevance of a military intervention in Venezuela, after the failure of Guaidó's attempt to oust Maduro this week, the question arises more seriously.

Some opposition supporters, especially frustrated street protesters, now claim that they favor formerly inconceivable troops – the "Yanqui" who land in the Bolivarian Republic to fire Maduro.

Despite the setbacks of the week, Venezuela's opposition leaders remain largely opposed to US military intervention, according to opposition officials and regulars of thought.

Many believe that US troops could trigger internal conflicts within the military, Maduro-related irregular forces and criminal cartels. An intervention would also undermine Guaidó's badertion that he is a Venezuelan leader at the base, seeming to confirm that he is exactly what Maduro said: a puppet from the United States.

A US military intervention would bring more problems than solutions, said Carlos Valero, a supporter of the Guaidó in the National Assembly.

Valero said that the opposition should continue to exert internal pressure. He insisted that he had demonstrated his strength this week "despite the fact that for the moment the armed forces have refused a change."

"That," he says, "will change."

The army refused to answer Guaidó's call on Tuesday and Maduro remains in power. But the opposition still considers that the socialist leader is much weaker than before the events of the week.

Discussions between opposition leaders and Maduro officials revealed this week suggest a deception in his entourage. And despite Guaidó's actions, neither the prosecutors nor the Maduro-backed Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant against him – a sign, according to his allies, of Maduro's weakness.

"The only one to promote an armed conflict here is Maduro," said Valero. "The opposition does not demand military intervention. We seek a peaceful change, thanks to the power of the people to shake civil society and eventually include the armed forces in our fight. "

Valero said opposition leaders were meeting to plan a way forward – a path that includes raising awareness among the poor, who have largely remained on the sidelines while the middle and upper clbades are demonstrating against Maduro. The poor have less access to social media and the internet, which are behind the protests. He added that coordination with the United States, Europe and other Latin American countries against Maduro would also continue.

Opposition protesters throw tear gas canisters at the National Guards on Wednesday May 1 in Caracas. (Michael Robinson Chavez / The Washington Post)

Guaidó, president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly in Venezuela, declared himself acting president in January after Maduro's election victory was widely regarded as fraudulent. This 35-year-old engineer has been recognized as the legitimate leader of Venezuela by the United States and more than 50 other countries. Russia, China, Cuba and some others support Maduro.

US officials have repeatedly said to be in favor of a peaceful transfer of power to Venezuela, but all options remain on the table.

While Venezuelan opposition leaders refuse US intervention, protesters in the streets are increasingly frustrated and tired of the bloodshed. At least four people were killed during protests this week, bringing the number of people to 57 for the year. This week's victims were boys aged 14 and 16; dozens of others were injured.

An American intervention, some say in the street, could now be the only way to suppress Maduro.

Guaidó called on supporters to maintain pressure against Maduro by organizing protests and strikes, but the reactions of exhausted Venezuelans facing the crisis are still unclear. After two days of clashes, the capital seemed to return Thursday to a level of normality.

That's what some are afraid of here.

"It's like it's just another day – and the question is, what are we doing now?" Asked Elsie García. The 20-year-old dental student took part in the same anti-government demonstration Thursday as Paulino.

"We tried, we really did, we went out on the street, but the army was too scared to turn against Maduro," she said. "We need intervention. Military intervention. The United States is the only place they will come. "

Political scientist Felix Seijas, director of the Delphos polling agency in Caracas, said that less than a fifth of Venezuelans he had polled this year support military intervention. Figures have only slightly increased since the beginning of the year.

"The people who support a military intervention say it's because at this point they see it as the only option left," said Seijas. "They say they would not normally support violence, but they are desperate."

Thousands of opposition supporters gathered in Caracas to protest the Maduro government. (Michael Robinson Chavez / The Washington Post)

According to badysts, the US military could overwhelm Venezuelan air defenses in a few hours. But the country still owns important military equipment made in Russia, as well as Cuban and Russian military advisers. Few think that an outright invasion is likely. Even surgical strikes, such as the American operation that caught Manuel Antonio Noriega in Panama in 1989, could leave a political vacuum, fuel an internal conflict and defeat the coalition of Latin American nations that have rallied behind the diplomatic effort. to expel Maduro.

Maduro sought to capitalize on the patriotic effect of the Trump administration, warning against an impending US invasion and decrying Guaidó as Washington's stooge.

"The empire is investing to divide us and say that there is a civil war in Venezuela," Maduro said Thursday morning during an appearance with the troops. "They say that they must intervene, to weaken our homeland."

At the same time, on Thursday, fears grew that Maduro could still trigger a more severe crackdown on dissent. The Supreme Court on Thursday issued an arrest warrant against key leader Leopoldo López, Guaidó's political mentor.

López escaped the house arrest early Tuesday and appeared with Guaidó and the small group of soldiers with whom he called on the military to rise up against Maduro. Notably, no warrant was issued against Guaidó himself – his arrest was perceived as a red line by his followers of the Trump administration.

Hours after the decision of the Supreme Court, López met with reporters at the Spanish Embbady in Caracas, where he took refuge.

An opposition protester presented on Wednesday in Caracas the portrait of Venezuelan liberator Simón Bolívar. (Michael Robinson Chavez / The Washington Post)

He insisted that the opposition is strong and that his strategy is "not improvised". He said that Maduro would fall "in the coming weeks".

"I say to all those who have lost hope that this is the last battle we can lose, because that's what the dictatorship wants," he said.

Michael Brice-Saddler in Washington and Amie Ferris-Rotman in Moscow contributed to this story.

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