Vestas launches research to improve five-minute forecasts



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Partners will test the solution at Infigen Energy's Lake Bonney II and III wind farms – two phases (159 MW and 39 MW) of a 278.5 MW complex, co-located with a 25 meg Tesla lithium-ion battery. MW / 52 MWh.

They received funding of 410,000 USD (290,000 USD) from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (Arena) for the one-year pilot project.

It is hoped that this solution will help Arena to more accurately predict weather conditions to better anticipate the supply of renewable energy and improve system stability.

Vestas said the research was aimed at improving the five-minute forecast of the Australian Wind Energy Forecast System (AWEFS), which could reduce financial penalties in the event of an inaccurate forecast of supply.

Operators are also sometimes forced to limit production to align with conservative forecasts.

"We hope to offer a much more advanced forecasting solution that can reduce the uncertainty badociated with the distribution of producers, reduce the operational cost of balancing supply and demand with energy and to limit the volatility of energy prices and regulatory complexity, "said Peter Cowling, Australian director of Vestas,.

The pilot project will use Supervisory Control Data and Data Acquisition (Scada) data to generate predictions using "deep learning" techniques – a self-learning subfield that deals with algorithms based on self-clbadification.

Arena hopes that the deep learning model will be able to adapt to seasonal variations in weather conditions.

Vestas and Utopus will also use hyper-local meteorological data from two weather masts, which they believe will help provide more accurate energy forecasts.

Utopus can provide weather forecasts with a spatial resolution of 1 km2 – more precise than the typical resolution of the 16 km weather grid2, he said.

Partners will share lessons learned from the 12-month pilot project with the energy sector, they said.

"A major challenge in the fields of wind and solar energy is to anticipate fluctuations in production to ensure the stability of the system by balancing the supply and demand of energy in the market," M added. Cowling.

"Our solution will help provide the market with sufficient and reliable energy."

Vestas acquired the energy badysis company Utopus Insights in February 2018.

The IBM Group develops, sells and provides energy badysis software to producers, operators, manufacturers, renewable energy transmission and distribution utilities and other companies in the energy industry. l & # 39; energy.

Utopus Insights operates as an autonomous entity within Vestas' services division, but signs common development agreements for predictive and normative badytics products.

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